774
FXUS64 KMEG 291108
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
608 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- A warming trend continues this weekend with temperatures
  reaching the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Heat headlines will
  likely return by the middle of next week.

- There`s a low chance of isolated showers on Wednesday.
  Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the
  Mid-South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The Mid-South will begin a warming trend after an overall
pleasant day with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s and highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Upper-level ridging, currently centered
over the Four Corners Region, will begin broadening east Saturday
with highs spanning the 90s Saturday and the entire area seeing
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Luckily, dry air from
the Midwest will persist over the region keeping dewpoints in the
60s to lower 70s. This will create a hot and dry feel, as opposed
to a hot and humid one, with heat indices in the lower 100s
through early next week. LREF guidance continues to paint low
probabilities (<15%) for heat indices 105+F both Monday and
Tuesday, likely keeping us away from Heat Advisory criteria
through early week.

Moving into midweek will likely be a different story as the
aforementioned upper ridge continues to broaden over the
Mississippi Valley. GFS and EWCF solutions continue to hint at a
very weak upper-low beginning to retrograde across the
Mississippi Valley as Gulf moisture begins to infiltrate.
Dewpoints look to begin increasing into the low to mid 70s, in
turn, allowing us to begin flirting with 105+F heat indices. We
will evaluate heat headlines on a day-to-day basis, as heat index
values will depend significantly on dewpoint temperatures through
the end of the workweek. Isolated (20%) chances for precipitation
enter the forecast Wednesday into early Thursday with increased
moisture. Though any precipitation that does fall will not be
appreciable and will only result in increased humidity across the
Mid-South. Otherwise, we`ll remain largely dry over the next
seven days. Looking ahead, the latest 8-14 day outlook has us
highlighted with a 70-80% chance of above-normal temperatures
through the first week and a half of September.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A ridge building in from the west will result in VFR conditions
and light winds over the next 24-30 hours at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Over the the weekend, there is a medium to high (50-70%) chance
of minimum relative humidity values falling below 35 percent as
dry air continues to filter into the region. 20 foot winds are
expected to remain less than 10 mph through the weekend, but fuels
will continue to dry. A prolonged dry period with no appreciable
rainfall may result in elevated fire weather danger heading into
next week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JDS