Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
109 FXUS64 KMEG 060516 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1116 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 - Record-challenging warmth will build into the Mid-South this week. Our warmest day will be Thursday as highs reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. - Rain chances return on Thursday and will become more widespread late Thursday night into Friday. A Slight Risk for severe storms is in place for the majority of the Mid-South on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Surface winds from the southwest have strengthened today in response to a 1003mb surface low currently moving into northwest Missouri. A 2001 surface high is in place along the southeast coast of the Nation, over eastern North Carolina, South Carolina and much of Georgia. Winds will relax a bit overnight following a normal diurnal trend, but also due to the surface low moving over lake Michigan. A warm front will lift into the Ohio Valley early tomorrow. Further weakening of the wind is expected tomorrow as the high shifts offshore. This pattern will keep a steady flow of warm, moist air streaming into the Midsouth. A weak cold, or occluded front will follow quickly behind the warm front late tomorrow. Wednesday`s temperatures behind this front will only be 2-4 degrees cooler than Tuesday. Clear skies should return to the Midsouth Tuesday afternoon but begin to increase again during the afternoon Wednesday. The pattern aloft does not change much through Tuesday. General zonal flow will prevail. However, a deepening trough off the Mexican West Coast will begin to translate to a more northwesterly component Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. That ridge will quickly shift across the Plains and approach the Mississippi River Valley by sunrise Thursday. This feature, along with persistent WWA will be responsible for boosting our afternoon highs into the upper 60s to middle 70s. The Atlantic trough will swing onshore Wednesday afternoon. An associated 995-997mb surface low will track from the Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday night, and into east-central Missouri Thursday evening. This track would place all of the Midsouth in a large warm sector Thursday night into Friday. Due to many factors, but mostly because we are still several days out, we are only expecting about a 15% chance of severe storms. The environmental conditions will feature high shear and low CAPE which is the typical setup for convection this time of year. However, the strongest dynamics currently look to stay mainly to our north and west with the higher instability to our south. A cold front Friday night is expected to bring cooler conditions for the weekend. Expect highs in the 50s Saturday and in the 40s Sunday. JDS && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 An MVFR stratus deck will begin to move over the airspace over the next few hours, ahead of a cold front. Conditions will slowly begin to lift back to VFR by mid-afternoon. A LLJ has led to moderate LLWS across JBR/MEM/MKL and will remain through the overnight hours. The aforementioned cold front will also bring occasional wind gusts up to 20 kts overnight. By daybreak, south winds will veer more southwest at around 8-10 kts, and become light by 00Z. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Minimum relative humidity values will remain well above 50 percent for the upcoming week, keeping fire weather concerns to a minimum. Rain chances return Thursday and persist through the end of the week. The chance of wetting rain Thursday and Friday looks high(100%). && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...AEH