Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
576 FXUS64 KMEG 041119 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 619 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 610 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Pleasant weather will continue through Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. - Temperatures will begin to climb during the latter half of the week. Most triple digit heat indices will be confined to areas along and west of the Mississippi River. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary boundary located from the northern Gulf Coast and up into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. Additionally, an inverted surface trough is located near the Tennessee River. GOES satellite trends indicate some mid- level clouds over Eastern Missouri and Arkansas associated with a mid-level shortwave trough beginning to move into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A combination of the aforementioned mid-level trough and an inverted surface trough may result in the development of shower and thunderstorm chances (20-30 percent) mostly along areas near the Tennessee River during peak heating into Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s areawide during this period. Not much has changed in the forecast for the remainder of this week as long-range ensemble and deterministic models continue to show an upper-level ridge in the Central/Southern Plains building east into the Lower Mississippi Valley towards next weekend. A gradual increase in heat and humidity can be anticipated with highs rising into the lower to middle 90s by the weekend and heat index values beginning to rise between 100-104 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A 1300ft deck will continue to effect MKL and TUP through mid morning. As an upper level low rotates out of the area this evening, a stray shower or two may develop near MEM and TUP, but impacts are not expected and should be free of the area by midnight. Similar setup in about 24 hours, but with a more southerly wind scheme, better moisture in the lower levels should allow MVFR to prevail at MKL and TUP. Opted to leave it as a scattered deck at MEM to see how the situation evolves. DNM && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1123 CDT PM Sun Aug 3 2025 No major fire weather concerns at this time. Minimum relative humidity values will remain between 45-55 percent. A chance (20-30 percent) of thunderstorms will be located mainly near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi through Wednesday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...DNM