876
FXUS64 KMEG 301110
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
610 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- A warming trend continues today with temperatures reaching the
  mid to upper 90s.

- Heat headlines will likely return by the middle of next week as
  humidity increases across the area.

- There is a low chance of isolated showers by the end of next
  week. Otherwise, a prolonged dry spell is forecast across the
  Mid-South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

00Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge encompassing
much of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valleys this evening. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains
centered over the Mid-Atlantic states. This is resulting in a
continuation of dry conditions across the Mid-South with well
above normal temperatures for late August. Late evening
temperatures are predominantly in the 70s across the area.

The aforementioned surface high will push east on Sunday allowing
southerly winds on the back side of high pressure to develop and
advect higher dewpoint air back into the area, especially east of
the Mississippi River. Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the
middle to upper 90s as the upper-level ridge strengthens across
the Lower Mississippi Valley.

This ridge will result in a mainly dry and very hot persistence
forecast across the Mid-South for most of next week. A
combination of daily highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
with the gradually rising humidity will result in heat index
values approaching or exceeding 105 degrees in some locations
perhaps as early as Monday across portions of northwest
Mississippi and East Arkansas (south of I-40). Confidence is
higher for heat headlines occurring mid to late week. A weak
tropical wave in the northern Gulf may bring a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms towards next weekend to portions of
north Mississippi.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Surface high
pressure building in from the west will result in south winds 7-
10 kts today and tomorrow, less than 5kts overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will fall to 30 to 35 percent
west of the Mississippi River on Sunday as a dry airmass
continues across the region. 20-foot winds are expected to remain
less than 10 mph through the remainder of the weekend, but fuels
will continue to dry. A prolonged dry period with no appreciable
rainfall may result in elevated fire weather danger heading into
the upcoming week.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JDS