Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
396 FXUS64 KMEG 221042 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 542 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Mainly rain free weather is expected through Saturday with noticeably less humidity. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s each day with lows in the mid 60s. - A cold front will swing through the Mid-South Monday and deliver our first taste of fall weather. - Next week will feature below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity. Lows will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s each morning with afternoon highs only in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 The latest GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows widespread clear skies from the lee side of the Rockies all the way into the Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. The latest GOES Water Vapor Imagery shows Hurricane Erin churning a couple hundred miles off the Northeast coast with an expansive ridge of high pressure across nearly the entire CONUS. Hurricane Erin will finally curve northeast and move back out to sea this weekend. As it does, the upper ridge will retrograde west of the Rockies and allow a deep trough to dip south into the Northern Plains and Midwest. The trough will deepen through the entire Mississippi Valley and help push a cold front all the way through the Mid-South on Sunday and Monday. With little moisture to work with, only a low chance of rain is forecast for portions of northeast Mississippi. Cool, dry, and pleasant Canadian air will build into the region Monday through at least late next week. After a couple of hot months, this will clearly be a nice break from the heat. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s each day. LREF guidance continues to advertise showers moving into the region on Tuesday, but moisture will be hard to come by. However, we will be positioned in the left exit region of a 100 knot jet streak passing overhead, which could create enough lift to generate a few showers or thunderstorms. Nonetheless, NBM continues to advertise low chances (less than 30%) of rain across the Mid-South during this period. Dry conditions look to persist Wednesday through late week as expansive surface high pressure builds in across the region. High temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below normal and morning lows closer to 10 degrees below normal. We`ll take it! AC3 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. NE winds will be between 5 and 9 kts through the daytime, becoming light through the overnight period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Near normal temperatures with below normal humidity will persist through the weekend. A cold front will push through the region on Sunday and deliver a shot of cool and dry Canadian Air to the region through late next week. Minimum relative humidity values will fall below 40 percent in the afternoon hours each day next week. Some guidance is hinting at MinRH values falling below 30 percent by midweek. With already dry fuels in place and high Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values centered over the Mid-South, there is a medium chance (>40%) chance that wildfire danger becomes elevated next week. 20 foot winds will not be particularly strong, which should limit a higher threat. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...CMA