992
FXUS64 KMEG 301709
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

- Oppressive heat will persist through Thursday with heat indices
  at or above 105 degrees. Some areas will again exceed 110
  degrees.

- Welcome relief from the extreme heat will arrive Friday and
  continue through the weekend. High temperatures will be in the
  80s to lower 90s with afternoon heat indices generally at or
  below 95 degrees.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Temperatures today are running a few degrees cooler than yesterday
but heat indices are still well into the triple digits across the
Mid-South. Some of the typical AWOS stations maintain a high bias
on the dewpoint/humidity, resulting in heat indices that are
inaccurate (too high). If the reading looks out of place, it
likely is. This heat is being maintained by an anomalous
subtropical ridge with 585 dam heights over the Ozarks, leading
to large-scale subsidence and compressional warming. We`re in
store for one more day of significant heat impacts before a cold
front moves across the area.

The Extreme Heat Warning will pushed out through 8 PM Thursday
area wide. Heat indices are marginal (105-109 degrees) in some
areas, but given the prolonged nature of this heat wave and the
cumulative nature of the impacts, we`re going to continue the
current headline as is. Most of the area is still under Heat Risk
of at least category 2 (moderate impacts), with areas south of
I-40 in categories 3 and 4 (major/extreme impacts). Isolated
diurnal storms will develop during the afternoon hours, providing
relief for some. Fortunately, a cold front will move across the
area Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing cooler and drier air
into the Mid-South, finally breaking the heat wave for all.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected as this system
affects the area Thursday night into Friday. NBM PoPs may be a bit
bullish on Friday given the intrusion of dry air, so this will
need to be watched. Otherwise, generally benign weather is
anticipated heading into the weekend in the wake of the cold
front. Temperatures will top out in the 80s in most areas with
heat indices in the 85-95 degree range, providing a very welcome
respite from the July heat. A stray diurnal shower or thunderstorm
can`t be ruled out across north MS or portions of West TN, but
the majority of the area will remain rain-free this weekend.

The subtropical ridge begins to build next week, but will be
anchored farther west toward the Four Corners. Mid-level heights
will build, resulting in warmer temperatures through midweek and
ensemble data suggests 500 mb heights will approach the 90th
percentile (compared to 97th percentile for this week).
Temperatures don`t look quite as hot, but some areas may
approach Heat Advisory criteria by midweek.

The other potential issue for next week is the amplification of
the southwest CONUS ridge which will place the Mid-South within
northwest flow aloft. This pattern provides a favorable steering
flow for MCS activity originating over the plains during the
afternoon and evening to venture into the OH or Lower MS Valleys.
The NBM looks to be trending in the direction of at least 20-30
PoPs during the overnight periods next week, but this will likely
need better refinement over the next few days as predictability
increases.

MJ

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR with light east wind today and tonight. A cold front will
result in north winds tomorrow, shifting around 14z at JBR,
15-16Z at MEM and 17Z at MKL. FROPA will be beyond the 24-hr TAF
at TUP. A few showers are possible in the airspace near MEM prior
to 00z. Will just carry VCSH for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Fire weather concerns will be minimal over the next week with
light winds and minimum relative humidity at or above 50
percent. Light northeast winds this afternoon will maintain a
general northerly component through the weekend. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...JDS