880
FXUS64 KMEG 191132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect again on today. Heat indices will
  peak between 105 and 109 F. Those without access to adequate
  cooling or air conditioning will be the most vulnerable.

- The heat wave will continue into early next week with highs
  reaching into the mid to upper 90s each day. Additional Heat
  advisories and potential Extreme Heat Warnings are highly
  likely.

- Relief arrives Wednesday as a weak front pushes through,
  dropping heat indices below 100F for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

The Mid-South remains unseasonably warm tonight with 11 PM
temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Radar shows isolated showers
and storms in the Missouri Bootheel and NW Tennessee, supported
by broad NW flow between a Great Basin ridge and an Ohio Valley
trough. Weak shear and capping will keep any overnight convection
sub-severe.

Sunday will be hot as the ridge persists. A Heat Advisory is in
effect from 10 AM to 9 PM, with heat indices peaking between 105-
109F before hi-res guidance suggests increased afternoon storm
coverage, particularly in NE Arkansas, W Tennessee, and NE
Mississippi.

The heat wave continues through Tuesday, with highs reaching the
mid-90s to near 100F. Heat indices will exceed 105F daily, with a
growing potential for >109F on Monday and Tuesday. This prolonged
heat event will peak Tuesday as cumulative effects mount.
Additional heat advisories and warnings are highly likely on both
Monday and Tuesday.

Relief arrives Wednesday as a weak front pushes through, dropping
heat indices below 100F for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for showers and thunderstorms returns late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period
as an upper-level ridge builds. Diurnal heating will trigger
isolated to scattered afternoon convection. Highest coverage is
expected near MKL, with borderline PROB30 potential at JBR/TUP.
Only VCSH is included for MEM. West winds 4-6 kts will become
light tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated as ample moisture
remains over the Mid-South and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

TN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TNZ001>004-019-020-048>051-088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JDS