713
FXUS64 KMEG 121707
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1207 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Scattered shower and thunderstorms chances continue with a 30%
  to 50% chance each day. Some storms could produce heavy
  rainfall and strong winds.

- Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South,
  with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat
  index values in the low 100s. Heat index values could reach the
  mid 100s by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Warm and humid weather is set to continue ahead of a
cold/stationary front currently across the lower Midwest. A
shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will continue moving east
with high pressure remaining over the Mid-South for the next
several days. Extending south through the Midwest, a
cold/stationary front currently sits just north of the region. As
highs swell into the low 90s this afternoon, storms will form
along and south of this boundary, posing a marginal damaging wind
threat. Storms are expected to be diurnally driven and gradually
weakening after sunset. Similar weather is expected tomorrow with
lower confidence in the coverage of damaging winds from afternoon
thunderstorms.

Into next week, ridging will remain in place over the southern
CONUS as upper troughing refuses to drop south of the Ohio River.
As such, highs will continue to climb moving through the week,
eventually reaching into the middle to upper 90s Wednesday through
the end of the period. Heat indices are expected to be rising in
tandem towards 105+ F which is increasing concerns for a Heat
Advisory later in the week, especially across Mississippi and
Eastern Arkansas. According to ensembles, PWATs will remain at or
above 1.75" through this portion of the period, suggesting
reasonably high confidence in daily scattered afternoon showers.
These rains could keep areas from reaching advisory criteria,
adding some complexity to the heat forecast through the end of the
week. However, this airmass will still be very hot and humid,
even if it is below a heat index of 105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A look outside shows convective development is well behind where is
was at this time yesterday. As such will delay the and PROB30
groups by a couple of hours. Southwest will prevail at JBR, MKP
and MEM through the TAF cycle, gusting to around 22kts this
afternoon, then weakening to 5-10kts overnight. Winds at TUP will
be lighter and a bit more southerly, especially tonight.  Winds
will pick up to around 10kts again tomorrow, with another round of
convection after midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

No fire weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast
period. Hot and humid weather will keep MinRH values above 40%
with winds gusting to around 20 knots through this afternoon.
Thunderstorms are expected this evening with a marginal threat of
damaging winds, which will gradually decrease in coverage after
sunset. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS