818
FXUS64 KMEG 262322
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the entire Mid-South
  through Sunday evening for heat index values up to 107 degrees.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief
  from the heat for areas mainly across northeast Mississippi and
  near the Tennessee River.

- Oppressive heat returns next week, but a pattern change should
  bring normal temperatures back to the forecast by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Friday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Hot temperatures will continue across the Mid-South this afternoon
as a 596 dm upper-level ridge is centered over the Southeast
United States. Sufficient low-level moisture on the back side of
the ridge axis has resulted in the development of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area, especially
near the Mississippi river at this time.

Prolonged and potentially oppressive heat will be the predominant
concern well into next week as models indicate the aforementioned
ridge retrograding across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very hot
temperatures combined with sufficiently high low-level moisture
may result in heat index values exceeding 105 degrees on Sunday
and potentially 110 degrees Monday and Tuesday. The existing Heat
Advisory has been extended in time through early Sunday evening.
Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings may become necessary early next week
if trends continue in subsequent model runs.

Long-range deterministic and ensemble model trends indicate a
slight increase in shower and thunderstorm chances towards late
next week as the upper-level ridge retrogrades further to the
Southern Plains and a weak front drops into portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A few SHRAs/TSRAs around initially at MEM/TUP otrw VFR. Seeing
less of a signal for low clouds in the AM or precip in the
afternoon on Sunday. South winds at 5-10 kts tonight will shift to
SW at around 10 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

No fire weather concerns are expected into next week as 20 ft
winds will remain light with minimum relative humidity values
around 50 percent.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-
     036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM