246
FXUS64 KMEG 041919
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
219 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Warm and humid weather will continue with temperatures climbing
  through this weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the
  90s with heat indices near 100.

- Rain chances will remain low (less than 20%) through the
  weekend before increasing again through next week (40%-60%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Summer continues its typical warm, humid, and stagnant reputation
this Independence Day as upper ridging remains in place across
much of the central CONUS. High temperatures are expected to
remain in the low to mid 90s through this weekend with dew points
in the 70s. This raises some concern for high heat indices with
current NBM 75th percentile showing 105 F locally across the
Mississippi River Delta across Mississippi and Arkansas. However,
ensemble guidance (HREF/LREF) isn`t as aggressive, keeping these
areas below 105 F until next week. Therefore, have decided against
heat headlines for this weekend for now.

Increasing PWATs and less amplified ridging will allow for
increasing chances for precipitation as well this weekend and next
week. A few showers are possible across northeast Mississippi
tomorrow with more showers over east Arkansas Sunday. By Monday,
PWATs will generally be above 1.7" with weak upper troughing
entering the region from the southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will
then increase Monday through the rest of the period, peaking
during the afternoon hours. Weak shear will keep any2025 diurnal
convection disorganized with heavy downpours and isolated hybrid
microbursts the most likely hazards.

Alongside the increasing storm coverage, LREF and NBM guidance
suggest that heat indices will continue to climb into next week.
Portions of the Mississippi River Delta in Arkansas, Mississippi
and far southwestern Tennessee could see heat indices approach or
eclipse 105. Afternoon storms have the potential to dampen the
magnitude of afternoon heat, but another hot and humid week
still appears likely. Will be monitoring for heat headlines as
next week draws nearer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions continue. Light winds will become S/SE near the end
of the current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

No fire weather concerns throughout the forecast period. High
humidity and light winds are expected to continue through the
weekend. A few showers are possible across northeastern
Mississippi tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CMA