009
FXUS64 KMEG 200452
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1152 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for parts of east-central Arkansas
  and north Mississippi on Wednesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday as a cold
  front moves through the region. There is a low chance of a few
  strong thunderstorms with gusty winds as the main threat.

- Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front through the end
  of the week. By Friday, highs will be in the upper 80s and mid
  90s. Another shot of cooler air will arrive on Sunday and
  persist into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The latest radar sweep shows just a small cluster of storms over
northeast Mississippi, anchored near an old and largely diffuse
outflow boundary. The aforementioned outflow produced 40 to 50
mph winds this afternoon and evening as it moved through the
majority of the Mid-South. Several reports of intermittent tree
damage was reported from northeast Arkansas into the Memphis
Metro and into portions of northwest Mississippi. A little bit of
light fog is possible overnight as winds remain light and the
boundary layer saturates.

The latest surface analysis places a 1011 mb low over Lake Eerie
with a trailing cold front through central Indiana and southwest
back into the St Louis Metro. This front will slowly propagate
south overnight into the morning hours. The highest PoPs will will
occur in the mid to late afternoon hours and remain along and
south of I-40. With weak shear once again, the threat of strong
storms will remain low. HREF guidance suggests that the front and
associated convection will finally clear the Mid-South in the late
evening hours on Wednesday.

Additional weak perturbations will translate south into the
region Thursday and Friday, but with a lack of deep moisture, PoPs
will remain 10% or less through this period. The Four Corners
ridge will retrograde west by Saturday and allow northwest flow
to set up over the region. This will help push a reinforcing front
through the Mid-South early Sunday. Little to no rain is expected
with fropa, but much drier air will definitely be welcomed into
the region.

Monday and Tuesday will be mainly dry and very pleasant for this
time of year. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.
Tuesday morning will be exceptionally cool with readings dipping
into the upper 50s across far northwest Tennessee.

Synoptic models are hinting at some precipitation returning as
early as Tuesday night, as a weak wave translates through
northwest flow aloft. Decided to maintain NBM 20 PoPs in the
extended forecast.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to diminish
overnight. Expect winds to veer more northerly by sunrise as a
weak front works through the airspace. Another round of
thunderstorms is anticipated Wednesday afternoon, impacting MEM
and TUP. Otherwise, VFR CIGs will prevail.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

A slow-moving cold front will bring isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms to areas along and south of I-40 on Wednesday.
Drier air will filter into the region through late week and
northerly transport winds will remain elevated. Relative humidity
will trend lower through this period with minRH values
approaching 40 percent mark by this weekend.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ007-010>012-
     020>024.

TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...ANS