727
FXUS64 KMEG 242336
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 636 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through
  the weekend and continuing into next week, featuring some
  strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

- Rainfall totals will likely fall between 3 to 5 inches, with
  some locations closer to 6 inches by Tuesday.

- Mild temperatures will continue through the weekend before they
  return to near normal readings by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Skies remain cloudy across much of the Mid-South this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across portions of
west Tennessee and north Mississippi. Currently, a weak frontal
boundary extends across southern Arkansas and into central
Mississippi.

This front will not move too much north through Sunday night. As
disturbance move along the front, additional round of showers and
thunderstorms are expected. The next round of rain is expected to
move into western sections of the Mid-South around midnight and
spread east during the overnight hours. A strong or severe
thunderstorms could occur over portions of north Mississippi with
damaging winds as the main threat.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across the Mid-
South on Sunday. Some strong/severe thunderstorms may occur across
the southern half of the region with damaging winds as the main
threat. The front will lift north into western Kentucky Sunday
night with rain becoming more widespread north of the front.

The front will then start to head back south on Monday and finally
exit the region by Tuesday night. More showers and thunderstorms
are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Monday will see the most
rainfall with over 2" possible, In total, 3 to 6 inches of
rainfall could fall between tonight and Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal with some
isolated showers and thunderstorms expected across the southern
half of the region.Temperatures will return back to more seasonal
levels on We628dnesday. Seasonal temperatures with scattered
thunderstorms will continue across the Mid-South for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Impactful yet low confidence TAF forecast ahead. Today`s batch of
showers and thunderstorms have left the region this evening. MVFR
CIGs remain across NE AR and W TN that will expand in coverage
through tonight and are expected to drop into IFR by 12z at all
terminals. Given the presence of high moisture, some drops in
visibility into MVFR are also possible.

Precipitation remains likely throughout the period within two
primary rounds. The first will occur this morning in the form of
a line of storms and the second tomorrow afternoon area-wide.
Confidence is still low regarding the timing and location of
precipitation and impacts, but enough is still present for PROB30
and TEMPO groups. Changes are likely in coming issuances as models
come into better agreement on the evolution of tomorrow`s
convection.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...JAB