057
FXUS64 KMEG 242333
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

General warming trend expected into tomorrow, with high
temperatures in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. A weak
frontal boundary will bring light showers tomorrow into tomorrow
evening. After a brief cooler and dry pattern Tuesday, additional
showers and isolated thunderstorms return to the forecast
Wednesday into the Thanksgiving Holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Another over-achieving day across the Mid-South, with temperatures
currently in the mid to upper 60s. Dew point temperatures have
begun to climb for locations west of the MS River and will
generally spread eastward overnight into tomorrow ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary. Ahead of this boundary with the
growing pressure gradient, winds will increase through the
overnight period into tomorrow with some 20 to 25 mph gusts
expected. High temperatures tomorrow will be well above normal,
likely reaching the upper 60s along and north of I-40 and into the
mid to upper 70s across north MS. Some light showers will quickly
move through the region along and ahead of this frontal boundary,
likely bringing no more than a quarter of an inch of rain.
Showers will be out of the region by the time most wake up
Tuesday, with a brief respite of cooler and dry conditions. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be just a hair below normal,
generally in the 50s.

By midweek, another unsettled pattern returns to the Mid-South.
What model consistency we had yesterday has seemingly vanished,
with ensemble spread growing a bit compared to yesterday. Models
seem to be having a difficult time resolving the trajectory of an
upper-level trough, with some guidance suggesting a deeper, more
prolonged trough axis with other guidance suggesting a much
faster solution. Both solutions would bring showers and isolated
thunderstorms to the Mid-South, but the later would bring more
QPF and usher precipitation out of the area quicker. Consensus is
precipitation chances increasing by Wednesday afternoon through
at least part of the day on Thanksgiving, but there is a question
as to how quickly things will move out Thursday night. Those with
turkey trot plans or any other outdoor plans on the holiday will
need to continue to monitor the forecast in the days to come.
Total rainfall amounts have continued to decrease though, with
amounts likely remaining below an inch. Will have some elevated
convection potential mainly Wednesday evening across north MS, so
will not rule out some thunderstorms in the mix. By the
Thanksgiving holiday, the better ingredients shift out of the Mid-
South, so think the strong/severe weather threat remains very,
very low for the Mid-South. This pattern has the looks of a more
showers with a few isolated thunderstorms type persona. Mild high
temperatures are expected on Wednesday, generally spanning the 60s
with cooler high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Thursday.

By Friday, a drier and cooler air mass will be moving into the
region, likely continuing into next weekend. Models are hinting at
a reinforcing shot of cold air by the back half of next weekend,
which could bring highs in the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s
by the start of next week. A few models want to bring
precipitation with this, but generally lean towards a drier
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

The main aviation concern overnight pertains to continued gusty
near surface winds and the development of a 40 to 45 knot low
level jet across the airspace that will result in wind shear at
FL020. By tomorrow morning, the low level jet will begin to
taper off, but gusty near surface winds will continue through the
TAF period. MVFR CIGS are forecast to develop early tomorrow
morning ahead of an approaching cold front. However, there
continues to be uncertainty pertaining to exactly when the front
will move through the Mid-South and the timing of any wind shifts
and precipitation associated with this feature.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JPR