486
FXUS64 KMEG 070440
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1140 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms will return tonight, then continue on
  and off through the end of the week.

- Highest rainfall amounts are expected over north Mississippi,
  where up to 2 inches of rainfall is forecast through Saturday.
  There is a low chance (10%) of rainfall exceeding 2 inches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

GOES Satellite trends place an upper-level low over New Mexico
this afternoon with the recent upper-level low now located over
the Great Lakes region. Shortwave ridging in between these two
systems has brought sunny skies and rain-free conditions to the
Mid-South today. Temperatures this afternoon have warmed into the
70s areawide.

Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front
along the northern Gulf Coast and extending back to a low and
associated cold front in central Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar
trends show showers and thunderstorms most prevalent across
Louisiana and east Texas, then extending north up into Arkansas.
The nearest showers and thunderstorms are currently located just
southwest of the forecast area over eastern Arkansas.

Short-term models including CAMs have not handled well the onset
of elevated showers and thunderstorms approaching the Mid-South
late this afternoon. The leading edge of this elevated activity
will arrive before sunset south of I-40 in east Arkansas and
portions of northwest Mississippi. Enough instability will be
present to produce thunderstorms but confidence in severe
thunderstorm potential remains low at this time.

Long-term model trends indicate the potential for showers and
thunderstorms will persist across the area daily for the
remainder of the week into early next week. The aforementioned
upper-level low is anticipated to move into the region as a
longwave trough drops into the eastern United States. Rainfall
totals for the next 7 days will average between one half to three-
quarters of an inch north of I-40 to 1 to 2 inches towards
central Mississippi.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Aviation impacts expected during the TAF period. Rain is currently
moving through the region and is currently past MEM/JBR and will
continue at MKL/TUP for the next few hours. Winds gusting up to 30
knots have been observed at MEM between 05-06z. Confidence in the
eastern extent of these winds is still too low to add anywhere
else, but will be monitored through the night for trends. Renewed
shower development and MVFR CIGs will arrive after 08z, lasting
through much of the period. Showers tomorrow could develop into
thunderstorms, but the coverage on any convection is still
uncertain at this time. Rain is expected to end at all terminals
after 00z tomorrow with variable winds and scattering clouds
through the end of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB