785
FXUS64 KMEG 051133
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Warm and humid weather will continue with high temperatures in
  the 90s and with heat indices near 100 degrees.

- Rain chances will remain low (less than 20%) today and Sunday
  before increasing again through the upcoming work week
  (40%-60%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Smoke from Independence Day festivities lingers across much of the
Midsouth resulting in slightly diminished visibility(3-5 miles).
Otherwise, its a typical muggy midsummer night across the region,
featuring clear skies and temperatures in the low to middle 70s.
Expect sunrise temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Weak return flow will set-up across the Midsouth this afternoon as
surface high pressure shifts over middle Tennessee. A low
amplitude northern stream trough will shift out of the Northern
Plains across the Great Lakes tonight. Our brief break from
oppressive humidity will come to an end this afternoon as dew
points creep back into the 70s. The Midsouth should remain below
heat advisory criteria (103 heat index) today, but may approach
criteria Sunday south of Memphis in the delta. NBM guidance has
been a bit too warm for the last few days, so confidence is not
quite high enough to issue a heat advisory at this time. As
moisture levels increase, so will our chance of rainfall. Showers
and isolated thunderstorms should be mostly confined to west
Tennessee near the Tennessee River, and northeast Mississippi
today. Tomorrow, as the aforementioned trough shifts across the
Great Lakes, rain chances should increase area-wide. WPC`s 1-2 day
QPF guidance remains very low (generally below one tenth of an
inch), but as most Midsoutherners know, any storm is capable of
higher totals on a smaller scale. Keep an eye to the sky and
expect locally heavy rain and lightning if you see a storm
developing in your area.

Next week, weak zonal flow will prevail across the MidSouth.
A couple of low amplitude northern stream troughs will move out
of the Central Plains and across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes.
These features will keep our chance of rain and thunderstorms
elevated through the work week. Widespread strong or severe
storms are not anticipated, but once again, expect frequent
lightning and locally heavy rain from any storms that impact your
area. High temperatures look to be in the low to middle 90s all of
next week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Reduced visibilities due to lingering haze due to firework smoke
and a low level inversion along calm winds will continue for the
next hour or so at JBR/MEM/MKL. Once haze and fog lift out, VFR
conditions will prevail across the airspace through the TAF
period. A few diurnally driven showers could effect MKL/TUP this
afternoon, though confidence was not high enough to include in
TAF. South/southwest winds will remain light across all terminals
through this issuance. Fog is expected to spread across
JBR/MKL/TUP tomorrow morning along another low level inversion,
clear skies, and calm winds.

AEH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

No fire weather concerns throughout the forecast period. High
humidity and light winds are expected to continue through the
weekend. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible across
northeastern Mississippi and west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River this afternoon afternoon. Rain chances will increase in
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel late Sunday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH