429
FXUS64 KMEG 120005
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
605 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 605 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

- Temperatures will return to near normal by mid-week with
  continued dry conditions. Rain chances return later this
  weekend with a warmup to the mid 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Arctic high pressure has shifted southeast of the region which
has created a strong pressure gradient across the Mid-South. Winds
are already gusting to around 40 mph in parts of NE AR. Added
Poinsett County to the Wind Advisory which is in effect until 6
pm. Even though temps are warming the gusty SW winds will feel
brisk today. High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the
50s, or about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

The deep eastern U.S. trough will push off the Atlantic coast
today and the upper flow will below more zonal by Wednesday which
will result in more seasonable temps. It will not be nearly as
windy on Wednesday as the gradient across the area slackens. Upper
ridging will gradually build over the center of the country by
Thursday and Friday with dry conditions continuing. Southerly flow
will bring milder temps northward with readings in the mid 70s by
Friday afternoon.

Models continue to struggle with the evolution of the system
moving on to the West Coast late in the week. Latest guidance
tends to favor the southern part of the system cutting off into an
upper low over the SW U.S. This upper low is ejecting out more
slowly with each run while the northern part of the system races
east. Cluster analysis tends to favor a slower solution. As a
result more of the weekend is looking dry and mild, quite possibly
the entire weekend with more of the rain holding off until Sunday
night and after. Next week is looking more unsettled as a more
active SW upper flow regime may set up.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Surface winds will continue to weaken, but LLWS will develop as
2000 foot winds accelerate between 40 to 50 knots from the SW.
Confidence is high, given agreement among the high-resolution
models. The LLWS threat will diminish near sunrise as surface
winds become 10 knots or less from the SW through the end of the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1045 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Minimum relative humidity values will range from 25 to 35 percent
this afternoon. In combination with gusty southwest winds, minor
fire danger will be present. Temperatures and humidity will be on
the rise this week as southerly flow returns, but dry conditions
will continue. Wetting rain chances increase on Sunday and
continue into early next week.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3