323
FXUS64 KMEG 150421
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1120 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

- Warmer weather is expected through the rest of the week.
  Forecast highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Some areas may
  reach or exceed 90 degrees.

- Another active weather period will kick off on Friday with a
  slight (level two out of five) risk for severe thunderstorms.

- Scattered, sub-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected to
  continue this weekend across the Midsouth after a frontal
  passage Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Warm, humid weather continues today as upper ridging builds in
response to an approaching upper low across the western CONUS.
Highs through the end of the week are expected to reach into the
mid and upper 80s with the chance for a few areas to see 90. A
few brief, light showers are possible this afternoon. However,
ACARS soundings throughout today have shown a stout EML that will
likely reduce the chances of measurable precipitation below a
mentionable threshold this afternoon and tonight.

The upper low to the west will eject out of the Rockies tomorrow,
bringing a large swath of 50+ knot 500 mb winds. A surface low
will then deepen and traverse the Northern Plains throughout the
day. Although the system is well north of our region, gradient
winds will still increase in response with gusty winds above 20
mph possible tomorrow afternoon. Rain showers are possible
tomorrow given the high humidity, but ridging and the EML will
still be present that will act to keep PoPs low during the day.
However, PoPs increase overnight Thursday into Friday morning as
the upper jet streak and height falls reach the Midsouth, slowly
lifting the EML. Height falls will be somewhat weak which could
keep widespread precipitation and storm development more isolated
through Friday morning. Any storms that do form will only pose a
low-end severe threat for wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado during
this time frame.

By Friday afternoon, the upper low is forecast to be positioned
over the Upper Mississippi River Valley with a zone of strong,
zonal upper flow over the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a
tropical airmass will remain in place with weak capping above.
Models are in good agreement that a 70 knot jet streak will be
present across the region. Throughout the day, insolation and jet
dynamics are expected to gradually overcome capping and yield the
potential for isolated/scattered thunderstorm development.

The environment going into Friday evening will be characterized
by minimal CIN, 2000+ MLCAPE, and effective bulk shear values
above 40 knots across nearly the entire region. Furthermore,
hodographs are expected to be somewhat curved below 3 km, but the
lack of a more backed, pronounced LLJ precludes enough streamwise
vorticity for a more significant tornado threat. Nonetheless,
tornadoes are still possible with any stronger storms. Storm
coverage and initiation is somewhat uncertain as we sit in a
"powder keg" type of environment with little to no trigger for
initiation during the day. Open warm sector development during
the is possible, but confidence on how this plays out is low. On
the other hand, confidence is high for strong to severe storms
along a cold front swinging through the region overnight into
Saturday. As such, the SPC has drawn a Slight (level 2/5) Risk for
severe weather for Friday through early Saturday.

The front is expected to retain convection into Saturday morning,
but increased capping and ridging is currently expected to bring
these storms below severe limits sometime before 12z. The boundary
will stall over N MS during the day where more diurnal convection
is possible. The boundary will remain Sunday before lifting north
again in response to a new trough to our west on Monday with
showers possible either day. Forecast uncertainty begins to
increase by Tuesday as discrepancies build within ensemble and
deterministic guidance as to the evolution of the western trough
and surface features across the CONUS. Regardless, warm weather
and the potential for more precipitation is expected next week to
end the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. A few CAMs bring some -SHRA
to the airspace by the afternoon, but confidence is very low for
any impacts. Next chance of -SHRA/-TSRA likely will not be until
the end of the current TAF period and there is still uncertainty
with this as well so haven`t included in FM groupings at this time.
Winds will remain southerly, with winds becoming gusty into the
afternoon with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 kts.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CMA