Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
855 FXUS64 KMEG 210451 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1151 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Mainly rain free weather is expected Thursday through Saturday with noticeably less humidity. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s each day with lows in the 60s. - A cold front will swing through the Mid-South Saturday night into Sunday and deliver our first taste of fall weather. - Next week will feature below normal temperatures and low humidity. Lows will dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s each morning with afternoon highs only in upper 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 The latest surface analysis places a quasi-stationary front just south of and parallel to Interstate 40 in the Mid-South. Along and south of the front, clusters of showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted on radar. This activity is not handled well by the 00Z HREF, however, the HRRR has begun to pick up on trends in the past couple of runs. Had to bump up NBM PoPs over the next 3 hours or so, as it had less than 15% coverage with ongoing showers. Nonetheless, convection should slowly diminish through the overnight hours with 10 percent or less coverage by sunrise. The front will finally push all the way through the Mid-South by mid morning on Thursday. Behind the front, moderate northerly winds will continue to advect in drier air into the region. With the drier air in place, diurnal temperature spreads will vary by nearly 25 degrees each day into the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. To put the dry air into context, precipitable water values will be in just the 25th percentile for this time of year or between 1.2 and 1.4 inches. By this weekend, an expansive longwave trough will dig from the Northern Plains south and east into the entire Mississippi Valley and Northeastern U.S. Upper level flow will shift northwest over the Mid-South and help push a reinforcing front through the Mid- South Saturday night into Sunday. With little moisture to work with ahead of the front, PoPs will remain only in the 10-20 percent range over northeast Mississippi. Our first real taste of fall will arrive on Monday and persist through late week. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The only fly in the ointment could be an MCS or two towards the middle of next week, due to couple of shortwaves translating through the upper level northwest flow. LREF guidance features a consistent precipitation signal associated with a weak jet streak next Tuesday night into Wednesday. The NBM is beginning to pick up on this signal with mentionable PoPs in the forecast during the same time frame. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 An outflow boundary approaching the MEM terminal may produce a stray shower or two over the next few hours. However, confidence in this occurring along with spatial coverage is too low for TAF mention. Winds will remain elevated through the period with intermittent gusts near 20 kts anticipated Thursday afternoon. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Mainly dry and rain free weather is expected Thursday through Saturday. There is a low chance (20%) of wetting rain with another cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Behind the front, much drier and cooler air will filter into the region through at least midweek next week. AC3 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...ANS