Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
676
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPMDT
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025
********************************************************
**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL ****
********************************************************
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR | HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS |HEFS ESP HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:CANNONBALL R AT REGENT ND
REGN8 22.0 24.0 26.0 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CEDAR CR AT RALEIGH ND 19S
RLGN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 | <5 <5 9 | <5 <5 5 | <5 <5 <5
:CANNONBALL R AT BREIEN ND
BREN8 10.0 20.0 23.0 | <5 14 58 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BEAVER CR AT LINTON ND 1W
BVRN8 12.0 14.0 16.0 | 16 14 45 | 14 <5 31 | 11 <5 13
:GRAND R AT LITTLE EAGLE SD 1S
LIES2 15.0 17.0 21.0 | <5 <5 27 | <5 <5 19 | <5 <5 7
:MOREAU R AT FAITH SD 14NW
FTHS2 16.0 18.0 21.0 | 6 <5 21 | <5 <5 11 | <5 <5 6
:MOREAU R AT WHITEHORSE SD 2SE
WHIS2 21.0 23.0 25.0 | <5 <5 22 | <5 <5 17 | <5 <5 11
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT WY-SD STATE LINE UMRB
BWSW4 15.0 16.0 18.0 | <5 <5 16 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT STURGIS SD 20NE
SBFS2 15.0 17.0 19.0 | 7 14 20 | 5 10 12 | <5 <5 6
:BELLE FOURCHE R AT ELM SPRINGS SD
EMSS2 19.0 22.0 24.0 | <5 6 11 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CHEYENNE R AT WASTA SD 3E
WASS2 13.0 15.0 16.0 | <5 <5 7 | <5 <5 <5 | <5 <5 <5
:CHEYENNE R AT PLAINVIEW SD
PLNS2 17.0 19.0 20.0 | 9 20 38 | 7 13 21 | <5 9 14
LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CANNONBALL R
REGN8 5.0/ 5.2/ 5.6/ 7.9/ 7.7/ 8.7/ 10.1/
:CEDAR CR
RLGN8 0.3/ 0.9/ 2.2/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 4.6/ 5.1/
:CANNONBALL R
BREN8 2.0/ 2.6/ 4.3/ 6.8/ 6.6/ 7.6/ 7.7/
:BEAVER CR
BVRN8 5.9/ 6.1/ 6.6/ 11.5/ 11.2/ 16.4/ 18.1/
:GRAND R
LIES2 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.8/ 7.2/ 6.6/ 8.8/ 10.9/
:MOREAU R
FTHS2 1.5/ 1.7/ 4.2/ 11.0/ 10.4/ 13.6/ 16.7/
WHIS2 2.3/ 2.6/ 4.9/ 10.8/ 10.6/ 14.2/ 20.1/
:BELLE FOURCHE R
BWSW4 4.2/ 4.2/ 4.3/ 8.4/ 8.0/ 12.4/ 14.0/
SBFS2 2.9/ 3.0/ 4.6/ 9.5/ 8.2/ 12.3/ 17.0/
EMSS2 4.3/ 4.7/ 6.2/ 11.2/ 9.7/ 13.2/ 18.6/
:CHEYENNE R
WASS2 0.5/ 0.5/ 0.8/ 3.8/ 3.5/ 5.3/ 5.8/
PLNS2 8.4/ 8.6/ 10.1/ 14.8/ 13.3/ 15.9/ 19.7/
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:CANNONBALL R
REGN8 4.8/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/ 4.7/
:CEDAR CR
RLGN8 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/ 0.0/
:CANNONBALL R
BREN8 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.9/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/ 1.8/
:BEAVER CR
BVRN8 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.6/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/
:GRAND R
LIES2 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.3/ 3.3/
:MOREAU R
FTHS2 1.5/ 1.5/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/ 1.4/
WHIS2 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.1/ 2.0/ 2.0/ 1.9/ 1.8/
:BELLE FOURCHE R
BWSW4 3.6/ 3.4/ 3.4/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/ 3.2/
SBFS2 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/ 2.2/
EMSS2 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8/
:CHEYENNE R
WASS2 0.3/ 0.3/ 0.2/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/ 0.1/
PLNS2 8.4/ 8.4/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.3/ 8.2/ 8.2/
.END
$$