677
FGUS63 KKRF 111528
ESPMDC

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
1207 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2025

********************************************************

**** THESE 90 DAY FORECASTS ARE PRODUCED WITH HEFS  ****
**** AND COMPARE TO TRADITIONAL ESP AND HISTORICAL  ****

********************************************************

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT ESP, HEFS, AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR
NORMAL PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR
FLOODSTAGES ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

HEFS VALUES INDICATE THE HEFS PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

ESP VALUES INDICATE THE ESP PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP OR HEFS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF ESP
OR HEFS IS LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025

                            :       CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                            :       OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                            :             AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
             CATEGORICAL    :
          FLOOD STAGES (FT) :      MINOR        MODERATE        MAJOR
LOCATION  MINOR  MOD  MAJOR | HEFS  ESP  HS |HEFS  ESP  HS |HEFS  ESP  HS
--------  ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT READING KS 3N
RDNK1      19.0  21.0  45.0 |  55   46   52 | 51   45   50 | <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT QUENEMO KS 2S
QNMK1      17.0  24.5  40.5 |  62   55   52 | 43   29   32 | <5   <5   <5
:SALT CR AT LYNDON KS 3ENE
LNDK1      10.0  16.0  24.0 |  49   40   47 |  5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OTTAWA KS
OTWK1      30.0  33.0  45.0 |  45   46   46 |  7    8   10 | <5   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT GARNETT KS 4N
GRTK1      26.0  32.0  34.0 |  33   33   37 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:POTTAWATOMIE CR AT LANE KS NO.2
LNEK1      23.0  24.0  28.5 |  26   20   19 | 17   15   13 |  5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT OSAWATOMIE KS
OSMK1      28.0  45.0  48.0 |  46   46   49 | <5   <5   <5 | <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT LA-CYGNE KS 1W
LCGK1      25.0  30.0  36.0 |  59   57   66 | 45   34   43 | <5   <5   <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES R AT TRADING POST KS
TPOK1      27.0  29.0  40.0 |  44   44   50 | 34   32   43 | <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
HEFS = HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SERVICE SIMULATION (CURRENT)
ESP  = CONDITIONAL ESP SIMULATION (CURRENT)
HS   = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT   = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--HEFS EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPXT/HGVFPX9/HGVFPXH
.B1 /HGVFPX5/HGVFPXG/HGVFPX1/HGVFPXF

:            CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                 VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1       2.5/    4.0/    8.4/   23.6/   23.5/   23.7/   25.1/
QNMK1       3.9/    5.1/   11.0/   28.6/   27.5/   29.4/   30.8/

:SALT CR
LNDK1       1.1/    1.6/    5.4/   13.2/   13.0/   13.9/   16.2/

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OTWK1       8.1/    9.1/   16.7/   32.1/   32.0/   32.5/   34.6/

:POTTAWATOMIE CR
GRTK1       5.9/   13.2/   20.2/   26.6/   26.3/   27.6/   31.3/
LNEK1       7.0/    9.3/   11.9/   23.7/   23.0/   26.1/   28.4/

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OSMK1      16.7/   18.1/   22.0/   32.9/   32.5/   35.4/   37.4/
LCGK1      11.4/   13.9/   18.5/   33.4/   32.9/   33.8/   34.2/
TPOK1      12.0/   14.0/   17.7/   34.2/   32.6/   37.1/   39.0/
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE HEFS
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--HEFS NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0315 Z DH12 /DC2503110507/DVD90/HGVFPNT/HGVFPN9/HGVFPNH
.B1 /HGVFPN5/HGVFPNG/HGVFPN1/HGVFPNF

:      CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:               VALID PERIOD = 03/15/2025 - 06/13/2025

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
RDNK1       2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/
QNMK1       0.6/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.5/    0.4/    0.2/

:SALT CR
LNDK1       0.5/    0.3/    0.2/    0.1/    0.1/    0.1/    0.0/

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OTWK1       3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/

:POTTAWATOMIE CR
GRTK1       3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.0/    2.6/
LNEK1       5.7/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4/

:MARAIS DES CYGNES R
OSMK1      13.0/   12.9/   12.9/   12.6/   12.7/   12.6/   12.4/
LCGK1       4.6/    4.6/    4.5/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/
TPOK1       4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.5/
.END

$$