417
ACUS11 KWNS 200552
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200551
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2213
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into northeast
Oklahoma...southwest Missouri and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200551Z - 200745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
the next several hours across northeast Oklahoma, southeast Kansas
and into southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. While buoyancy
is fairly limited, strong shear may compensate and support a few
strong/severe storms.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics show an uptick in
convection across the KS/OK/MO/AR region over the past hour. This
comes as isentropic ascent within a diffuse warm frontal zone
increases in tandem with a strengthening of 925-850 mb winds noted
in upstream VWPs. The warming/moistening in this layer is also
supporting a northward expansion of MUCAPE, and while buoyancy
profiles remain fairly marginal per recent forecast soundings, this
environment has been sufficient for deep convection. Regional VWPs
and mesoanalyses continue to show 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear
across the region with favorable hodographs for splitting
supercells. The expectation is for transient supercells to emerge
and periodically pose a threat for large hail (most likely between 1
to 1.75 inches in diameter). Storm interactions and motions along
the frontal zone should promote upscale growth into clusters, which
should limit the coverage/longevity of the hail threat. As such,
watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Smith.. 11/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36239673 36639709 36989730 37369738 37719729 38029696
            38239644 38319501 38149382 37659322 37219307 36769306
            36489320 36249358 36019425 35939549 36019622 36239673

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN