633
ACUS11 KWNS 281451
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281451
NYZ000-PAZ000-281645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...PA and southern NY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 281451Z - 281645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong gusts will be possible into
this afternoon as scattered thunderstorms spread east across
Pennsylvania and a portion of southern New York. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Isolated deep convection is ongoing attendant to a
minor MCV moving east from far eastern OH. With convective
temperatures being breached across southwest NY into western PA,
storm coverage should increase over the next couple hours as an
attendant outflow ahead of the MCV shifts east. Moderate lower to
mid-level westerlies should largely be confined from the NY/PA
border area northward per the 12Z BUF/PIT observed soundings and
recent VWPs. Greater coverage of storms is anticipated south of this
across PA where shear will be weaker with southern extent. Still,
enough flow will exist for multicell clusters that have a higher
probability of being loosely organized along the southern
NY/northern PA border vicinity. Strong gusts from 45-60 mph
producing isolated to scattered tree damage and small hail are the
expected hazards.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/28/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41108040 41647943 42427680 42407517 41557503 40367562
            39997616 39887817 40088003 40328036 41108040

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH