141
ACUS11 KWNS 161330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161329
CAZ000-161530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the southern California Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161329Z - 161530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Weak convective showers may pose a threat for waterspouts
and damaging winds along portions of the southern California coast
through mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KVBX shows shallow convective
cells moving northward ahead of an eastward migrating convective
band within a narrow plume of warm air advection. Several of these
cells show weak rotation per velocity imagery, and while too shallow
for substantial lightning production, may be capable of brief/weak
waterspouts given nearly 450 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by the nearby
KVBX VWP. These cells will gradually approach the coastline of
western Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties in the next few
hours and may pose a risk of waterspouts and damaging winds along
the shore. This threat is expected to remain fairly spatially
limited to coastal areas given very limited buoyancy further inland,
at least for the next few hours before cold temperatures aloft
spread east. Regardless, the spatial/temporal threat will likely
remain sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Smith.. 02/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...

LAT...LON   34412047 34542066 34642067 34862064 35062066 35182085
            35292097 35442104 35622103 35692089 35622074 35212042
            34862025 34662010 34472005 34422016 34412047

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH