849
ACUS11 KWNS 241522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241522
CAZ000-241715-

Mesoscale Discussion 2269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0922 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the southern California Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241522Z - 241715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado is possible along the immediate coast as a
shallow convective band moves east this morning.

DISCUSSION...A shallow band of convection, not currently deep enough
to support lightning production, continues to move eastward into the
LA Basin region ahead of a strong shortwave trough. The strongest
parts of this band remain near the coastline where dewpoints appear
to be in the low 60s F. Prior to the passage of this activity, KVTX
VAD data did show notable low-level shear/SRH. Recent velocity
imagery has also depicted weak, transient areas of low-level
rotation. A brief tornado will remain possible as this activity
continues east. Strong and gusty winds may also accompany the band.
The primary threat area will likely remain along the immediate coast
given decreasing surface moisture and buoyancy inland.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 12/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33911889 34031895 34311890 34181855 33971821 33781789
            33581766 33461763 33411778 33461806 33551816 33911889

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH