038
ACUS11 KWNS 160134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160134
FLZ000-160400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north-central Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 160134Z - 160400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized risk of strong/damaging gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado will continue for the next few hours across parts of
north-central Florida.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of mainly disorganized thunderstorms continue
spreading/developing east-southeastward across north-central FL
within a zone of low-level confluence and weak positive theta-e
advection. Weak pre-convective buoyancy may continue to limit
updraft intensity, though a narrow plume of middle/upper 60s
dewpoints is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE closer to the
coast. Despite the weak buoyancy, the TBW 00Z sounding and VWP are
sampling strong low/deep-layer shear -- aided by a 40-50-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and 60-70-kt midlevel flow. Enhanced
low-level hodograph curvature (around 350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) may
favor transient circulations embedded within the clusters of storms
as they continue east-southeastward, and locally damaging gusts
and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out for the next few
hours. Any severe risk is expected to remain too limited for a
watch.

..Weinman/Hart.. 02/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28938133 28808112 28648106 28378112 28098133 27848171
            27568217 27478249 27508277 27718289 28008295 28358279
            28928165 28938133

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH