205
ACUS11 KWNS 051946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051945
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-052145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern NM into the far western OK/TX
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 051945Z - 052145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of producing large hail
and severe wind gusts will increase over the next few hours. The
tornado threat could eventually increase with east-southeastward
extent.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along a wind shift over
northeastern NM this afternoon. Ahead of these evolving storms,
upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints are contributing to moderate
surface-based instability -- given steep midlevel lapse rates.
Around 50 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/straight
hodograph) oriented parallel to the zone of low-level ascent should
support a few supercell clusters as they move east-southeast into
the increasingly unstable air. Initial storms will pose a risk of
very large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe risk becomes more
uncertain with southeastward extent into the western TX Panhandle.
However, if storms can mature into this region, enhanced low-level
helicity would favor an increasing tornado threat as well. Trends
are being monitored for a possible watch over the area.

..Weinman/Smith.. 06/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34870454 35470477 36170480 36440459 36850398 37010325
            36930233 36650219 35870258 35230298 34850366 34870454

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN