204
ACUS11 KWNS 102242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102241
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-110045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...far southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102241Z - 110045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of severe wind and marginally severe
hail will be possible through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed in the upslope regime
across northeastern New Mexico this evening and across portions of
the Texas Panhandle near the Cap Rock. Additional development will
continue into the early evening across these regions.

Across northeastern New Mexico into southern Colorado, large
temperature-dew point spreads (with temperatures in the low to mid
80s and dew points in the mid 50s) and steep low to mid-level lapse
rate profiles will support isolated severe wind potential with
stronger cores. Additionally, deep layer shear around 25-30 kts may
support a few isolated instances of small to marginally severe hail.


Across the Texas Panhandle, moderate instability is in place amid
temperatures in the 80s to 90s amid mid 50s to 60s dew points.
Deeply mixed profiles with steep lapse rates throughout will support
potential for downbursts locally severe wind with stronger cores. A
recent gust to 67 mph was measured in Carson County. Weak shear
profiles will likely limit any hail potential.

..Thornton/Smith.. 09/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35900233 36410283 37090342 37520402 37730464 37570534
            36960563 35610504 34670405 33630218 33760116 34720106
            35480137 35900233

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN