647
ACUS11 KWNS 131848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131848
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-132045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Basin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131848Z - 132045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered convection will bring a risk for strong
to severe wind gusts this afternoon/evening across much of northern
Utah, eastern Idaho, and western Wyoming.

DISCUSSION...North-northeastward mid-level moisture advection
downstream of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough, strong
diurnal heating, and deep boundary layer mixing are supporting
widespread inverted-v thermodynamic profiles across the northern
Great Basin as of early this afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis and the
18z LKN observed sounding depict weak buoyancy (generally 250-500
J/kg MLCAPE) across the region, with developing showers and
thunderstorms noted across portions of eastern Nevada into western
Utah via latest radar/lighting data.

While stronger mid-level flow is expected to remain displaced
farther to the north, regional VWPs (e.g., SFX/MTX) are sampling
35-40 kts of south-southwesterly flow at 3-4 km AGL. Coupled with
deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles (LCLs of 3-4 km AGL) and
steep low-level lapse rates (sampled by regional 18z observed
soundings), this will support the potential for strong to severe
wind gusts this afternoon across portions northern Utah into eastern
Idaho and western Wyoming. While the expectation for weaker
mid-level flow and slightly lower convective coverage lend some
uncertainty to the severe risk this afternoon compared to areas
farther north, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover
this threat.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON   40861327 41981341 43111330 43841300 44191249 44381171
            44421100 44341060 43991013 43540979 42920974 41990968
            41150983 40801005 40151072 39991148 39971201 40241274
            40861327

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH