634
ACUS11 KWNS 042250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042249
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-050015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0549 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southwestern South
Dakota...western Nebraska...and northeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042249Z - 050015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional severe gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible this evening across portions of eastern Wyoming,
southwestern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and northeastern
Colorado. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A weak shortwave trough across the High Plains has
triggered storms across the region. These storms have moved off of
the higher terrain of Wyoming and Colorado eastward onto the Plains.
Relatively weak flow aloft means convection has organized into
multicell clusters and line segments in an environment with a
modestly dry boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates. All
these factors mean these storms have a risk for severe gusts,
particularly with the more intense clusters of storms. Some
marginally severe hail is also possible, but the weak deep-layer
shear may limit the hail threat. Due to the sparse coverage of
convection, a watch is not anticipated.

..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39850300 40170376 40810412 41560466 42390541 43690573
            44310486 44110356 43050210 42360139 41470128 40640149
            40250177 40030209 39850300

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN