137
ACUS11 KWNS 171754
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171753
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1699
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171753Z - 172000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected along a
stalled front over the OH valley. A few of these thunderstorm
clusters may produce occasional damaging gusts. A WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
showed scattered thunderstorms increasing in coverage and intensity
across much of the OH Valley region. Driven largely by strong
heating along a broad stalled frontal zone, a very warm and humid
air mass will continue to destabilize through the afternoon. With
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected. Vertical shear is weak, but some organization into loose
clusters is possible as local outflows consolidate with time.

Storm coverage should be maximized ahead of several small-scale
features along the front such as the remnant MCV over eastern
MO/southern IL and a localized convergence zone across eastern IN
northern KY and southwest OH. Radar and CAM trends show a few
stronger storms emanating from these clusters. With steep low-level
lapse rates and high PWs (1.9-2.1 inches) occasional stronger
downdrafts capable of damaging gusts of 45-60 mph are possible.

While some local increase in the severe risk is possible over the
next few hours, general storm organization still appears limited due
to the lack of greater vertical shear and synoptic-scale forcing.
Thus, a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Smith.. 07/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
SGF...

LAT...LON   39108827 38139133 37009101 36898811 37708322 38068191
            38788125 39288173 39558319 39108827

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH