Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
615 ACUS11 KWNS 311542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311542 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-311945- Mesoscale Discussion 0067 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026 Areas affected...Piedmont of Upstate South Carolina into North Carolina Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311542Z - 311945Z SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour may become increasingly common across the Carolina Piedmont vicinity through 1-4 PM EST. DISCUSSION...To this point, it appears that peak hourly snow rates within an area of snow spreading across and to the lee of the southern Appalachians have remained relatively modest. Precipitable water across the Piedmont is generally around or below .35 inches, with lower values to the west/northwest. Saturating temperature profiles are well below freezing, but temperatures conducive to dendritic ice crystal growth appear initially centered around 700 mb, somewhat low and perhaps not most optimal for larger dendritic ice crystal growth and aggregation. However, latest model output suggests that the deep, digging upstream short wave trough/elongated cyclonic circulation will gradually take on a more neutral orientation while pivoting across and southwest of the southern Appalachians through 18-21Z. Increasingly difluent and divergent mid/upper flow to the northeast of this feature is forecast to contribute to a period of strengthening upward vertical motion across the Carolina Piedmont. This may be enhanced by a band of strengthening frontogenetic forcing in the 800-700 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate cooling profiles will contribute to further lowering, but deepening, of the dendritic growth zone. As this occurs, high resolution model output, among other guidance, suggests increasing potential for hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, which may persist, at least on an off, through much of the afternoon. ..Kerr.. 01/31/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35548200 36768021 35767929 34778073 34438187 35548200