727
ACUS11 KWNS 192223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192223
NMZ000-200030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...East-central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192223Z - 200030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will likely be maximized across
east-central New Mexico over the next 2-3 hours as supercells
continue to mature within a supportive environment. Watch issuance
is not expected given the relatively limited spatial/temporal extent
of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, several supercells across
east-central NM have become much more intense and well-organized, as
evident by robust hail signatures in MRMS data and three-body
scatter spikes evident in KFDX imagery. In particular, two cells
between the Fort Sumner and Roswell areas are currently moving
across the most favorable thermodynamic environment, which is
characterized by MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg per recent RAP
mesoanalysis estimates. With 40-50 knots of effective bulk shear
already in place across the warm sector, these two storms will
likely remain discrete/semi-discrete supercells for the next couple
of hours. Increasing low-level helicity after 00 UTC associated with
a strengthening nocturnal jet may support some increase in tornado
potential, but this may be conditional on whether storms remain in
the viable surface-based warm sector, which is currently limited in
northern extent by a residual stationary boundary north of the I-40
corridor. Regardless, these cells will likely pose a severe hail
(possibly up to 1.75 inches in diameter) and wind threat through at
least 00-01 UTC.

..Moore/Guyer.. 10/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35300371 35010355 34840353 33540433 33480452 33470474
            33680495 34980507 35260497 35450456 35440411 35300371