481
ACUS11 KWNS 311840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311840
NCZ000-VAZ000-312245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 311840Z - 312245Z

SUMMARY...A period of sustained moderate to heavy snow rates
approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour appears to be
developing and likely to continue through around 6-7 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Longer term radar loops indicate increasing
precipitation rates within a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, extending from just inland
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal areas
east-northeastward offshore.  Across and inland of the coast,
thermodynamic profiles are largely sub-freezing, with Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings indicating modest precipitable water around .4 to
.5 inches along this corridor.

These same soundings suggest lift becoming maximized within
temperatures most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth
(roughly in the 700-600 mb layer) through 21-00Z, and becoming
focused near the Virginia/North Carolina border, near but perhaps
remaining just south of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach vicinity, before
stronger forcing tends to shift east of coastal areas this evening.
It appears that this probably will be accompanied by a sustained
period of moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally
exceeding 1 inch per hour.

..Kerr.. 01/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36347730 37167535 35607528 34937712 35637749 36347730