526
ACUS11 KWNS 011237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011237
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-011700-

Mesoscale Discussion 2242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OK...western/central AR...far southwest
MO

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 011237Z - 011700Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain may increase across parts of central
Arkansas this morning, while light mixed precipitation will continue
to spread from northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas and far
southwest Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Mixed precipitation (mainly in the form of shallow
convective showers) has been spreading east-northeastward across
central/eastern OK this morning. The 00Z OUN, 06Z LMN, and 12Z FWD
soundings, along with recent objective mesoanalyses, suggest that a
temperature inversion above 700 mb is limiting the depth of the
convective showers, while dryness below 800 mb initially limited
precipitation rates. However, the regenerative nature of this
precipitation has resulted in evaporative moistening and cooling of
the column, allowing for at least light accumulations of
precipitation at the ground. Some icing has been noted in the OKC
area, and light ice accretion and/or sleet accumulation may spread
east-northeastward from northeast OK into northwest AR and far
southwest MO. Some snow may mix with the precipitation in this area,
though with the primary ascent and saturation occurring generally
below the dendritic growth zone, a tendency toward sleet or freezing
rain may persist in these areas as well.

Farther south, stronger buoyancy (as observed in the 12Z FWD
sounding with MUCAPE above 100 J/kg) may support somewhat heavier
precipitation rates from southwest into central AR later this
morning, within a persistent low-level warm-advection regime. While
low-level temperatures are more marginal compared to areas farther
north, evaporative cooling and relatively dry/cold surface
trajectories from the northeast may allow for some ice accretion,
especially on elevated surfaces. A transition to primarily rain may
occur from southwest to northeast by late morning, due to continued
warm advection and muted diurnal heating.

..Dean.. 12/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35399566 35989597 36629598 36859458 36509267 35449188
            34449201 33789247 33749316 34059431 34529443 35189452
            35399566