433
ACUS11 KWNS 220424
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220423
NYZ000-PAZ000-220830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Areas affected...the Catskills and Poconos vicinity of northeastern
Pennsylvania and southeastern New York

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 220423Z - 220830Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are expected locally
across parts of southeastern New York and northeastern Pennsylvania,
specifically over the higher terrain in the Catskills and Poconos
vicinity.

DISCUSSION...As an upper low centered over southwestern Pennsylvania
moves slowly east-southeastward, a surface low currently analyzed
over the eastern Long Island vicinity will continue to retrograde
northwestward across southern New England and eventually into
southeastern New York.  Strong low-level warm advection north of the
low is resulting in widespread moderate to heavy precipitation --
mostly in the form of rain -- across southern New England and into
eastern New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, and northern New
Jersey.  However, temperatures near or slightly below freezing are
indicated across the higher terrain areas including the Poconos and
Catskills, where moderate to locally heavy snow is occurring
(moderate snow is now being reported at the BGM obs site).

Given the rather slow movement of the upper system, QG ascent across
the discussion area should remain strong over the next 3 to 6 hours.
 As such, expect locally heavy snow -- at rates near an inch per
hour -- to persist through midnight and into early Friday morning.

..Goss/Guyer.. 11/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   42677447 42397416 41817439 41547501 41107548 41177575
            41367590 41477650 41887688 42867614 42917505 42677447