393
ACUS11 KWNS 192017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192017
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192017Z - 192215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated by around 4-6 PM
CDT across northern Oklahoma into southern/southeast Kansas. This
activity may pose a severe hail/wind threat as it spreads into
eastern Kansas this evening. Watch issuance may be needed later this
afternoon/evening to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown
a steady uptick in cumulus development along a diffuse surface
trough/cold front from southern KS into the eastern TX Panhandle.
The 18 UTC sounding from TOP shows a stout cap remains in place
across east/northeast KS, but hot temperatures across OK/southern KS
in the upper 90s to low 100s are actively mixing out lingering
inhibition (as evidenced by the recent deep convection along I-40 in
western OK). This trend appears to be faster than depicted by recent
CAM solutions, suggesting that robust initiation may occur in the
coming hours across southern KS.

As storms develop, they will mature in an environment characterized
by MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg and 30-40 knots of effective
bulk shear (based on the recent TOP sounding and latest mesosnalysis
estimates). Deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the front
should favor discrete cells initially with a large hail threat (most
likely hail size between 1.0 to 1.75 inches), but increasing storm
coverage through early evening should promote clustering with an
increasing potential for severe winds (50-70 mph) as activity
spreads into eastern KS. While timing remains somewhat uncertain,
watch issuance may be needed late this afternoon/early evening
across this region.

..Moore/Gleason.. 09/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36889803 37859703 37989695 38609644 38919624 39169606
            39279587 39419560 39449536 39439512 39379492 39269480
            39169465 38909455 38549456 38059462 37689482 37319511
            37029559 36819600 36699632 36439778 36399808 36449827
            36579835 36669827 36889803