Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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878 ACUS11 KWNS 042209 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042209 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050015- Mesoscale Discussion 1563 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas...northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486... Valid 042209Z - 050015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across ww486 this evening. DISCUSSION...Upper ridge is gradually shifting east across the MS Valley. This is permitting a higher PW plume over the Plains/northern MN to gradually advance across the upper Red River region into the main body of ww486. Latest radar data suggests a very weak MCV may be embedded within a more elongated corridor of convection, just east of Jamestown ND, but this feature is subtle. With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F across convective-free areas, ample buoyancy is available for both the east-west, and north-south corridors to eventually advance across the remainder of the watch through the mid-evening hours. Hail and wind remain possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 07/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47369867 49399165 47079166 45059868 47369867 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN