504
ACUS11 KWNS 191858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191858
OKZ000-KSZ000-192100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Areas affected...Central/eastern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 191858Z - 192100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may try to organize along/near an
outflow boundary in eastern Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Strong to
marginally severe winds may produce wind damage. A watch is not
anticipated this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Weak ascent from an MCV and a surface boundary have
contributed to  the development of a cluster of storms near I-70
west of Topeka. This cluster has already produced wind damage. While
this cluster has generally moved southeast, the airmass with
eastward extent has been cooled/stabilized by another decaying MCV
in southwest Missouri. That said, some airmass recovery in the
immediate wake of the outflow boundary is occurring in southeast
Kansas. The greatest concentration for storms will likely exist
near/along this outflow boundary through the afternoon. This
boundary is moving westward, which may hinder organization
potential. Other isolated storms may also develop just ahead of the
weak MCV in central Kansas. Mid-level lapse rates are slightly
steeper with northward/westward extent. A few storms could produce
marginally severe gusts. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging winds
will be possible given surface temperatures nearing 100 F.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/19/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38679615 37369539 36669490 36449495 36179548 36029601
            36029638 35949710 35969725 35989832 36149855 37019871
            38509916 39399854 39629750 39459677 38679615

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH