298
ACUS11 KWNS 010601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010600
TXZ000-010830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010600Z - 010830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging gusts will
continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
south-central TX as of 06 UTC, with occasional elevated supercells
noted. This activity continues to develop north of a nearly
stationary surface front, and may persist through much of the
overnight as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the
region from northern Mexico.

While midlevel lapse rates (as observed in the 00Z CRP sounding and
analyzed by the RAP) are not particularly steep, rich moisture above
the frontal inversion is supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg where
storms are ongoing. Strong mid/upper-level westerly flow is
resulting in effective shear of 60+ kt, more than sufficient for
organized convection. Large hail and localized damaging gusts will
continue to be possible with the strongest storms overnight. A
recent elevated storm with hail near Houston suggests that some
severe potential may extend farther north than analyzed MUCAPE would
indicate, though storms that track farther south (closer to the
front) will have access to stronger buoyancy, and perhaps a
localized very large hail threat.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29270104 29689823 29629692 29399618 29059603 28609608
            28299670 28009753 27769866 27729927 27680001 29270104

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN