313
ACUS11 KWNS 100544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100543
KSZ000-COZ000-100745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Colorado and southwest
Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 100543Z - 100745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic hail and damaging gusts are possible for a few
hours tonight with scattered strong storms.

DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed this evening
within a post-frontal upslope flow regime across southeastern CO and
western KS.  Continued weak ascent and moderate buoyancy aloft will
likely support numerous updrafts, including some stronger ones
through tonight. Deep-layer shear is supportive of
occasional/transient organization with splitting supercells already
observed. This will support some potential for sporadic severe hail
with the stronger storms over the next few hours. Damaging wind
potential is more uncertain given the boundary layer is likely
somewhat stable and should become more stable with time. However,
some potential may exist as storms cluster and occasional stronger
downdrafts develop.

So far the stronger/organized storms have been more transient in
nature. Short term guidance does show storms persisting through the
overnight with some clustering as they move into southwest KS. While
sporadic severe potential is evident, the environment should become
more stable and should limit the severe risk with time. Given the
limited potential for organization and then environment becoming
less favorable with time a WW is unlikely.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 09/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38750497 38980280 38980143 38680072 38330045 37730068
            37440099 37060241 37040326 37070441 37200499 37610511
            38750497

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN