581
ACUS11 KWNS 121837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121836 COR
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-121900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1107
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...much of Virginia...parts of West
Virginia...Maryland...northern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 121836Z - 121900Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected to develop through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A surface trough is gradually deepening across MD/VA/NC
with strong heating resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates.
Modest northwest flow aloft exists into the area, which may aid in
steering storms in a southeastward direction. Visible imagery shows
a moist air mass across the entire area and extending west across
the higher terrain as well, suggesting minimal drying/downslope
effects.

In the next couple hours, storms may form in the agitated CU area
currently seen over northern into northwest VA. Several models
depict a possible cluster of storms moving southeastward later
today, with a corridor of damaging winds possible.

Other storms are likely to develop over WV and southward across the
Appalachians. Given the weak northwest winds aloft, any such
activity may move into the lower terrain late in the day. Several
models suggest any such convection and/or outflows may instigate new
development during the late afternoon into much of central VA and
perhaps northern NC.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   37258177 37808116 38787980 38987924 39137802 39027702
            38927678 38377634 37847641 37517710 36987785 36397880
            36018174 36018182 36368227 36798229 37258177

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN