130
ACUS11 KWNS 112221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112221
AZZ000-120015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas affected...Southeast AZ

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112221Z - 120015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the
remainder of the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A storm has recently intensified east of Tucson and
produced 1-inch diameter hail, with other storms gradually
increasing in coverage across southeast AZ. The 18Z TUS sounding
depicts an environment characterized by relatively rich moisture but
weak midlevel lapse rates, and sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized convection. While this area is somewhat removed from
stronger large-scale ascent associated with a deep mid/upper-level
trough over the western CONUS, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective
shear of 35-45 kt will support potential for isolated strong storms,
including potential for a supercell or two. The weak lapse rate
environment will not be particularly favorable for hail or wind, but
isolated instances of marginally severe hail and/or strong gusts
will be possible through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Dean/Kerr.. 10/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31351155 32661176 33571139 33791062 33460930 32800912
            31900907 31240915 31190995 31351155

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN