548
ACUS11 KWNS 222344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222343
COZ000-230145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Areas affected...northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222343Z - 230145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a few severe wind gusts is expected to
increase across the discussion area this evening. The areal coverage
of the threat is expected to remain too limited to warrant a watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends indicate thunderstorms gradually
increasing in areal coverage across portions of Lincoln and Kit
Carson Counties, to the north of a stalled front. The storms are
developing within the western edge of a more moist and unstable
boundary layer (i.e., MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg), and within a
zone of stronger east to southeast surface winds. Aided by a gust
front approaching from the west, latest CAM guidance suggests the
potential for upscale growth into a loosely organized complex or
line by 01-02Z.

The current KGLD VWP is sampling a 1-km deep layer of southeast
winds, which will enhance storm-relative inflow into the developing
storms. When coupled with steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
boundary-layer temperature-dewpoint spreads of 30+ degrees, the
setup appears supportive of a few severe wind gusts this evening.

..Mead/Mosier.. 07/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   39160355 39870376 40620387 40970359 40870269 39790245
            39030262 38870309 39160355

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH