797
ACUS11 KWNS 040211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040210
NDZ000-040345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

Valid 040210Z - 040345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and locally severe gusts remain possible with
evolving thunderstorms over western North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms that initiated along a
NNE/SSW-oriented surface wind shift in western ND have shown
transient intensification as they track slowly eastward off the
boundary. Ahead of these storms, very steep midlevel lapse rates
(accompanying an EML) atop lower 70s dewpoints are contributing to
strong-extreme surface-based buoyancy. While low-level inhibition at
the base of the EML and weak large-scale forcing for ascent do cast
some uncertainty on storm maintenance/longevity (especially in the
near-term), the strong-extreme buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective
shear will conditionally favor supercells with a risk of large hail
and locally severe gusts. With time, large-scale forcing for ascent
will increase ahead of an approaching midlevel trough currently
moving into eastern MT, along with low-level warm advection along
the western periphery of a strengthening low-level jet. This should
promote additional strong-severe thunderstorms in the next few
hours.

..Weinman.. 07/04/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

LAT...LON   48130265 48330232 48340178 48040140 47360146 46660172
            46110232 46050302 46110341 46350359 47140352 48130265

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN