754
ACUS11 KWNS 040711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040711
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-040915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Areas affected...South-central/southeast IA into far northeast
MO/northwest IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040711Z - 040915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has increased in coverage and
intensity over the last 1-2 hours across parts of Iowa, within a
low-level warm advection regime. Recent intensification has occurred
with a cell south of Des Moines, with other semi-discrete cells
noted along the southwest periphery of the ongoing convection. These
storms have developed within the northern periphery of a gradually
expanding elevated buoyancy plume, with MUCAPE generally around
500-1000 J/kg. Moderate west-southwesterly flow aloft is supporting
effective shear of 25-35 kt for convection rooted within the 800-700
mb layer, sufficient for some storm organization. Relatively steep
midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will continue to
support an isolated severe-hail threat with any stronger storms that
can remain semi-discrete overnight.

..Dean/Gleason.. 10/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41319410 41749247 41839148 41729101 41309081 40589084
            40369141 40669330 40709354 41319410