441
ACUS11 KWNS 311655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311654
MOZ000-311930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311654Z - 311930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail and locally damaging
wind gusts are possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters evolving along/immediately north
of convective outflow spreading into central/southern MO are
beginning to impinge on a moist, diurnally destabilizing PBL. Steep
midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 12Z SGF sounding) atop lower
70s dewpoints will yield a strongly unstable air mass with continued
diurnal heating this afternoon. This, combined with around 30 kt of
effective shear (slightly enhanced by a convectively augmented
midlevel impulse to the north), will support loosely organized
clusters through the afternoon. The stronger storms will be capable
of producing isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additional isolated storm development is possible along the trailing
outflow boundary in southwest MO this afternoon, though weak
large-scale forcing for ascent limits this confidence in this
scenario.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 05/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38139293 38579191 38689139 38639091 38469051 38029034
            37589050 37249095 36969168 36849262 36889379 37109424
            37389442 37579436 37689394 38139293

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN