118
ACUS11 KWNS 072315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072314
MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0614 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of northwestern Mississippi...southern
Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 072314Z - 080115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Initiation of widely scattered to scattered, intensifying
thunderstorms appears underway, with the evolution of a couple
southeastward/southward moving supercells possible through 7-8 PM
CDT.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis indicates a zone of weak
confluence and warm advection, west-southwest of Memphis into
southeastern Oklahoma, where deepening convective development is
evident in visible satellite imagery.  This is occurring beneath
broadly cyclonic, 40-50+ kt west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, in
the presence of a seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer and
modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse supportive of CAPE up to
3000 J/kg.

The plume of elevated mixed layer air contributing to the steep
lapse rates may also still be contributing to lingering inhibition,
but guidance suggests that this is eroding, and the initiation of at
least widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development may be
underway.  The evolution of a couple supercells posing a risk for
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appears possible through
00-01Z, with some potential for a tornado, though low-level
hodographs may remain modest.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/07/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34829536 34679308 34999135 34969036 34168943 33289110
            33659527 34519599 34829536

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN