497
ACUS11 KWNS 161131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161130
TXZ000-161330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161130Z - 161330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Brief tornado potential may continue over the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorm activity across south-central
Texas have included embedded supercell activity that produced
several transient circulations overnight. This is ongoing within a
plume of tropical moisture along and near a stationary boundary
draped across south-central and southern coastal Texas. The
low-level jet (LLJ) has been steadily increasing over the last few
hours and appears to be nearing peak, around 30-35 kts from the
south. This is well sampled from the VAD from DFX where 0-3 km SRH
is around 250-350 m2/s2. Despite overnight rainfall, MLCAPE around
500-1500 J/-kg remains in place with dew points in the mid to upper
70s south of the boundary. With the increase in low-level shear, a
brief uptick in tornado potential may be possible before decreasing
as the LLJ decreases through the morning. Given the isolated and
brief nature of this threat, a watch is not anticipated.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   29580097 29820075 30030035 30109977 30119948 29929919
            29609906 29279916 29089996 29050069 29400098 29580097

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH