419
ACUS11 KWNS 081919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081918
TXZ000-082115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2220
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Areas affected...North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 081918Z - 082115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm organization/intensity will
continue over the next couple of hours.  WW may become necessary
later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of
storms along a north-south surface cold front bisecting Texas at
this time, with weaker/elevated convection to the cool side of the
boundary.  Over the past hour or so, an increase in storm
organization has occurred over the Big Country/western North Texas,
where a narrow frontal band is now crossing Young and eastern
Stephens/western Palo Pinto counties at this time.

The pre-frontal environment across North Texas is characterized by a
moist boundary layer, but with weak lapse rates aloft -- in part due
to persistent/ongoing precipitation.  Despite the marginal
thermodynamic conditions however, flow veering and gradually
increasing with height is contributing to shear profiles favorable
for updrafts to organize -- even in spite of the less favorable
thermodynamics.  As such, as storms strengthen gradually this
afternoon, in part due to weak/filtered heating and thus modest
additional destabilization,  severe risk -- mainly in the form of
damaging winds and marginal hail, but also possibly including a
tornado or two -- is expected to materialize.  Greater tornado
threat would likely require a more cellular pre-frontal warm sector
storm mode, which seems rather unlikely at this time.  As such,
tornado threat should be confined to more weak/brief QCLS-type
circulations.

..Goss/Guyer.. 11/08/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33219833 33609803 33469745 33029685 31849684 31299737
            31399793 32649841 33219833