Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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103
ACUS11 KWNS 220125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220124
MNZ000-SDZ000-220300-
Mesoscale Discussion 2000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0824 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025
Areas affected...Parts of eastern South Dakota and southwestern
Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 220124Z - 220300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts are possible with a
southward-moving cluster of storms.
DISCUSSION...Earlier semi-discrete thunderstorms have evolved
upscale into a small cluster of storms, with an embedded supercell
still evident. These storms are tracking southward along the eastern
periphery of moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy (per modified
00Z ABR sounding). The consolidated/organized cold pool and robust
updrafts (including the embedded supercell) will continue to pose a
risk of locally damaging wind gusts with southward extent. However,
gradually increasing nocturnal stability in the boundary layer and
gust-front parallel deep-layer flow/shear should tend to limit the
potential for forward propagation and the overall coverage of
severe-wind.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/22/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 44249577 43979613 43969682 44139739 44599760 45059749
45379716 45509650 45439606 45169559 44699557 44249577
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN