042
ACUS11 KWNS 240131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240131
MEZ000-240300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1425
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of northwest Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240131Z - 240300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster emanating from eastern Quebec may
pose a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado this evening.
Confidence in a persistent severe threat is not high.

DISCUSSION...As of 0125 UTC, MRMS and EC radar imagery showed a
small bowing cluster of thunderstorms across the St Lawrence River
Valley in eastern QC. Largely paralleling a stationary frontal zone,
these storms have remained fairly organized this evening amidst
moderate buoyancy and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Additional
moistening of the boundary layer is ongoing along and south of the
frontal zone from low-level warm advection across western ME.
Forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh suggests surface dew
points increasing to near or above 70 F, which may temporarily
slowly nocturnal stabilization. In the presence of enlarging,
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a few damaging gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this thunderstorm cluster.

Storms should cross the international border in the next 1-2 hours.
Confidence in a sustained severe threat is low as nocturnal
stabilization will gradually diminish the remaining instability.
Still, deep veering wind profiles and moderate shear could support
some severe threat for a few hours tonight. Convective trends will
continue to be monitored, though a WW currently appears unlikely.

..Lyons/Smith.. 06/24/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   47256969 47366935 47176894 46526856 46116878 45666917
            45556938 45617036 45967068 47256969

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN