307
ACUS11 KWNS 220535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220534
KYZ000-TNZ000-220730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southwest KY into far northern TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220534Z - 220730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado are
possible late tonight.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is moving across far western KY
to near the TN state line late this evening. While instability is
modest at best (with MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg), ascent attendant to
a midlevel shortwave trough approaching the Ohio Valley may help to
sustain this cluster as it moves eastward late tonight. Midlevel
flow and deep-layer shear (as sampled by the KPAH and KHPX VWPs) are
rather strong, which could allow for convection to remain somewhat
organized as it moves eastward. Mostly unidirectional wind profiles
may continue to favor a quasi-linear mode, though a transient
embedded supercell or two (as recently noted near the KY/TN border)
cannot be ruled out.

Weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy will tend to limit the
magnitude of the severe threat. However, locally gusty/damaging
winds will be possible into the early overnight, and a brief/weak
tornado cannot be ruled out with any persistent supercell
structures, with 0-1 km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2 in place per the KHPX
VWP.

..Dean/Smith.. 11/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37578760 37678645 37448545 36438564 36158607 36428854
            36878781 37578760

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH