443
ACUS11 KWNS 060116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060115
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-060245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1137
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado...southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 060115Z - 060245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado Watch 369 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 are
currently set to expire at 9 PM CDT/8 PM MDT.  However, thunderstorm
development may continue to increase into the 9-11 PM CDT time frame
near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity, accompanied by at least
some continuing risk for severe hail.  It is possible that a new
severe weather watch will be issued.

DISCUSSION...Appreciable boundary-layer instability remains largely
focused within a narrow corridor along the Kansas/Colorado border
vicinity, near/east of modest lee surface troughing.  This appears
to include CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg.

Southerly low-level updraft inflow emanating from this environment
has been maintaining stronger convection in a southward propagating
cluster across and south of the I-70 corridor during the past couple
of hours, within otherwise weak westerly deep-layer ambient mean
flow (due to pronounced turning of wind fields with height) on the
order of 10-15 kts.  It is possible that this activity could
continue to be accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind
another hour or two, but this threat seems likely to diminish as
boundary-layer instability wanes with the loss of daytime heating.

Convection-allowing guidance generally indicates that the primary
corridor of continuing convective development will align along a
rough west-northwest to east-southeast axis, supported by
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection along the northern periphery
of a warmer plume of air based near or just below 700 mb.  Based on
forecast soundings, most unstable parcels along this corridor will
be rooted above a relatively cooler/more stable near-surface layer,
but convective-layer shear and thermodynamic profiles might still be
conducive to a risk for severe hail.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/06/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37070186 37360309 38190284 38810287 39290216 38190122
            37789924 37659752 37039748 36889904 37070186

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN