371
ACUS11 KWNS 152323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152323
MIZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...central into southeast lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152323Z - 160130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and/or marginally
severe hail appear possible with thunderstorms developing across the
discussion area. A watch is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed along a cold
front from Gratiot and Clinton Counties into Oakland County.
Although smoke and some high cloudiness are likely reducing diabatic
warming, latest surface observations indicate temperatures in the
low 90s south of the front, which coupled with dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s, is resulting in a moderately to strongly unstable air
mass with MLCAPE as high as 2500-3000 J/kg, per latest objective
analysis. However, closer inspection of RAP-based soundings
indicates the presence of relatively warm mid-level temperatures,
which are reducing lapse rates through the 700-500 mb layer. That
coupled with a considerable amount of dry air through that layer and
the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, it`s quite possible
that the available parcel buoyancy may be less than what objective
analysis suggests.

The presence of 30-40 kt of northwesterly deep-layer shear may
offset some of the thermodynamic limitations, potentially leading to
episodic supercell structures with an associated risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Given the expected areal
coverage and magnitude of the threat, a watch is not currently
expected.

..Mead/Guyer.. 07/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42468376 42698453 43018491 43278505 43388473 43208368
            42868312 42668279 42298304 42468376

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN