Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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995
ACUS11 KWNS 172052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172051
ILZ000-IAZ000-172215-
Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025
Areas affected...central IA to northwest IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172051Z - 172215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts and small hail will be possible
through early evening with slow-moving cells developing along a
quasi-stationary front.
DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually bubbled along a
quasi-stationary front from central IA to northwest IL with an
initial thunderstorm near ALO. Weak deep-layer shear per the 18Z OAX
sounding along with modest mid-level lapse rates suggest convection
should limit organizational potential. But large buoyancy owing to
mid/upper 70s surface dew points along the front will aid in wet
microburst potential, especially where small, melting hail cores
develop before updrafts collapse.
..Grams/Mosier.. 08/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41978929 41608916 41478961 41509043 41669203 42059343
42389392 42959356 43079309 42739152 42359023 41978929
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN