885
ACUS11 KWNS 200855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200854
MOZ000-201100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

Valid 200854Z - 201100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to gradually move
eastward across southwest Missouri over the next couple of hours.
The threat should become more isolated as it eventually approaches
the eastern edge of WW 153. New weather watch issuance to the east
of the ongoing watch appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from
Springfield, Missouri shows a continuous line of strong to severe
storms located from far northwest Arkansas into far southwest
Missouri. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an axis of weak
instability with MUCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. The RAP
forecast sounding at Springfield has effective shear of 50 to 55
knots. This will likely support a severe threat with the line
segment as it gradually moves eastward over the next couple of
hours. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. The threat
should become more isolated as it moves into even weaker instability
further east.

..Broyles.. 04/20/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...

LAT...LON   36529255 36519341 36559386 36809409 37249387 37829339
            37959271 37619209 36789212 36529255

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH