307
FXUS64 KMAF 141945
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

- A Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening for
  Lower Brewster and Terrell Counties.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this
  evening for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. A Wind
  Advisory is in effect until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
  the Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County Plains, as well as
  Gaines County. A Blowing Dust Advisory is in effect until 8 PM
  MDT /9 PM CDT/ for Southeast New Mexico and Culberson, Loving,
  and Reeves Counties.

- At least elevated fire weather conditions are possible through
  next week, mainly for areas along and west of the Pecos.
  Increasing winds over the weekend may result in critical fire
  weather conditions in these areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

An upper-level ridge begins to depart and troughing makes a return.
As we transition from one feature to the other, upper-level winds
have accelerated and mixed down to produce breezy to strong
southwesterly winds. Therefore, a High Wind Warning remains in
effect over the Guadalupe Mountains and a Wind Advisory over
southeastern New Mexico, Culberson, and Gaines counties through this
evening. Winds subside heading into the overnight hours allowing any
dust kicked up during the day to settle.

After a couple of rather hot days, some minor relief is on the way!
This evening, an upper low continues to track from the Great Basin
northeastward while another trough extends over the western half of
the US. Tonight, as the first trough heads toward the Great Lakes, a
surface low develops in the lee of the Rockies. This drags a cold
front into our area out of the northwest. Lows dip into the 60s for
most, while the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys drop into the
70s. Thursday, southeastern New Mexico, portions of the Permian
Basin, and the higher elevations in West Texas top out in the 80s.
Triple digits stay restricted to along the Rio Grande, while
elsewhere hits the 90s. Thursday night, lows drop roughly 5 degrees
cooler than the previous night for almost everywhere except near the
Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Friday, an upper level trough is forecast to move onshore in Baja,
putting West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft.  Thicknesses/temperatures will be on the increase after
Thursday`s cold front, with highs Friday topping out around 5 F
above climatology.

Saturday, a stronger trough is set to make landfall on the west
coast, and will phase into the Baja trough, digging into the
southwest CONUS through the weekend.  Leeside troughing on the Front
Range will induce increasing southwesterly flow over the higher
terrain, with high winds at times in the Guadalupes beginning
Saturday afternoon, along w/BLDU.  Downslope warming will contribute
to continued increasing thicknesses, with highs plateauing Sunday
afternoon ~ 6-8 F above normal.  This looks to be the warmest day of
the long-term forecast.  These winds will sharpen up a dryline over
the east Sunday afternoon/night, resulting in a slight chance of
convection over the Western Low Rolling Plains.

Monday, the trough begins ejecting, to the Four Corners by early
afternoon.  Thicknesses will begin decreasing ahead of a Pac front,
due to arrive Monday evening or so.  Again, a slight chance of
convection will be possible over the Western Low Rolling Plains,
southeast Permian Basin, and lower Trans Pecos as the front pushes
through.  High winds/BLDU will be possible as the front arrives and
pushes through.

Tuesday, the trough further ejects into the upper Midwest, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under zonal flow aloft.
Thicknesses are forecast to hit their nadir Tuesday morning, with
Tuesday afternoon being the coolest day this entire forecast as
highs end up within a degree or two of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Strong southwesterly winds have kicked up blowing dust at CNM,
leading to MVFR and occasional IFR conditions this afternoon.
Winds look to remain breezy to strong at most terminals until a
bit after sunset. A cold front is expected to sweep in Thursday
morning, bringing calmer winds out of the northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Despite recent rains, Nasa SPoRT moisture products suggest soils are
drying out very quickly, and any benefits from the past couple of
weeks is quickly diminishing.  Latest 0-10 cm soil moisture
percentiles are 20% or less for most of the CWA.  As a result,
single-digit relative humidity is forecast for most of the area
though next week, coinciding with poor recovery each night.  At
least elevated fire weather conditions will be possible each day,
mainly west of the Pecos.  Concerns begin to increase beginning
Saturday as 20-ft winds begin increasing w/the approach of the next
upper trough. This activity could peak Sunday afternoon as high
temperatures/low RH tag team with increased 20-ft winds to yield
Extreme RFTI (7-8) over most of the area along/west of the Pecos. If
ERC trends are right, most of this area should have ERCs 75th
percentile or higher by then. Stay tuned...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  93  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 66  89  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   72  99  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    64  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  86  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     69  93  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   69  91  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     67  92  62  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Eastern Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson-
     Gaines-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster
     County-Terrell.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central
     Lea-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

     High Wind Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...95