675
FXUS64 KMAF 111024
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
524 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 524 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

- A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect today due to
  elevated fire weather conditions over southeastern New Mexico,
  much of the Permian Basin, and the West Texas mountains.

- A storm system arriving tomorrow spells increasing fire weather
  concerns and breezy to strong winds.

- A more potent storm system arrives Friday. Strong to very strong
  winds and critical to extreme fire weather conditions will be
  the main impacts. Temperatures drop slightly behind the cold
  front before a warming trend ensues once the system departs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

WV imagery this morning shows the southern CONUS between two
systems.  To the west, an upper trough is approaching SoCal/Baja del
Norte. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico are under zonal flow
aloft, but this will transition to southwest later today as the
trough pushes east.

Leeside surface troughing on the Front Range ahead of the storm
system will veer and increase winds to the southwest today.
Downslope warming under sunny skies will increase thicknesses to
yield afternoon highs averaging a pleasant ~ 10 F above normal.

Tonight, westerlies will decouple somewhat, but remain elevated
enough to keep mixing in play, adding 3-4 F to tonight`s minimums,
keeping lows 6-8 F above climatology.

The west coast trough is forecast to open and make landfall this
evening, advancing to the Four Corners region by 12Z Wednesday.
Isolated rain and snow showers will be possible in the Guadalupes
Wednesday morning, but QPF looks negligible.  The NAM develops a
mountain wave signature, and 700mb height gradients tighten up to
60m/200nm, signaling a high wind event.  This will likely develop
down into the Davis Mountains by late morning.  As such, we`ll
expand the watch to include this, and some adjacent plains.
Advisories will be needed later for most areas to the east Wednesday
afternoon. Given perpetually dry soils, BLDU is a given. Also, it
almost goes w/out saying that, given the constant dry, westerly flow
throughout the short term, critical fire weather conditions are
expected. See Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The upper-level system responsible for the blustery conditions
earlier Wednesday begins to track east of our area throughout the
night. Lows Wednesday night sink into the 40s. Winds taper down and
upper ridging briefly takes back the wheel ahead of another, more
potent storm system set to arrive late Thursday night and into
Friday. Thursday brings comparably nicer weather, with calmer winds
and highs in the 70s and 80s, even a few 90s near the Rio Grande.

Over the course of the night Thursday, an upper-level trough becomes
negatively tilted and a surface low quickly intensifies near the lee
of the Rockies. This will release another windbag over our area,
with stronger winds compared to Wednesday`s system indicated by a
tighter pressure gradient shown in ensemble and deterministic
guidance. The surface front still looks to arrive sometime Friday
morning, shifting winds out of the west and northwest. Much of the
area could experience sustained winds over 30kts, with gusts over
40kts Friday afternoon. This system is not expected to bring any
precipitation. Aside from wind products, dry conditions and strong
winds will result in critical to extreme RFTIs; therefore, fire
weather products are likely.

Highs Friday range from the 50s in parts of southeast New Mexico and
the mountains, 60s for most everyone else, and 70s to 80s in the
Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend. Lows drop into the 30s and 40s.
Winds Friday night and Saturday remain on the breezy side while the
trough gradually departs to our northeast. Highs in the 50s and 60s
stick around Saturday, then the 60s and 70s become more prominent
Sunday as winds decrease and we begin a warming trend under an upper-
level ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds.
Light westerly surface winds will increase by late morning,
becoming gusty everywhere except KFST/KPEQ. Winds will decouple
after sundown.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are expected today,
with widespread critical minRHs and ERCs above the 75th percentile.
However, 20ft winds will be light, helping to mitigate concerns. As
such, we have issued an RFD for southeastern New Mexico, much of
the Permian Basin, and the mountains and adjacent plains in West
Texas. However, 20ft winds will be light today, helping to mitigate
concerns. Fire weather threats increase tomorrow areawide, with the
addition of breezy to strong 20ft winds. There is currently a Fire
Weather Watch in effect for Wednesday over the entire region. This
will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning later today. Friday
once again looks to be particularly critical at this time with the
arrival of another storm system. Critical to near critical
minRHs, along with strong winds are expected regionwide Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               83  45  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 78  46  71  44 /   0   0  10   0
Dryden                   85  51  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            82  51  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  43  60  44 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    77  44  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    75  43  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     80  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   80  47  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     81  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern
     Culberson-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Reeves County Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-
     Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...44