632
FXUS64 KMAF 132240
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

- Near normal temperatures and low (20-40%) storm chances continue
  tomorrow for areas west of the Pecos River Valley. A storm or
  two may become strong with heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent
  lightning.

- Temperatures begin to climb back above normal Friday onward.
  Thunderstorms stay largely confined west of the Pecos River
  valley heading into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

An upper-level ridge of high pressure continues to extend across the
Desert Southwest and into the Four Corners Region and southern
Rockies this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough is pivoting across
our forecast area around the eastern periphery of the ridge this
afternoon. Weak ascent provided by this feature in combination with
sufficient deep layer moisture (precipitable water values between 1-
1.4 inches per satellite Total Precipitable Water estimates), a
remnant weak boundary, and daytime heating/instability is aiding in
the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
over portions of west and southwest Texas. We will maintain a low
(10-30 percent) chance of showers and storms through the remainder
of the afternoon, primarily over central and southern portions of
the forecast area, with the greater chances favored over the Davis
Mountains, Marfa Plateau, and Big Bend region. Convection should
diminish through the early evening hours.

The upper-level ridge of high pressure will otherwise continue to
build across west Texas and southeast New Mexico through Thursday.
Low convective chances (10-30 percent) will primarily become focused
over the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and Marfa
Plateau/Big Bend/Presidio Valley region on Thursday afternoon. POPs
will remain 10 percent or less over the remainder of southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin, and the Trans Pecos region where
generally dry conditions are anticipated. Lows tonight and Thursday
night continue to range in the lower to mid 70s over most areas,
except for 60s in the higher terrain. Highs on Thursday are forecast
to trend warmer in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees over most of
the region, except upper 80s to lower 90s in the mountains and up to
102-107 degrees along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

An upper level ridge will be the deciding factor in the long
term. Guidance continues to show the ridge translating to the east
and holding across the Southeastern US to close out this week.
With the ridge in that position, rain chances increase across the
western and southern parts of the CWA. SE NM south across the
Davis Mountains and into Big Bend will see low(10-30%) rain
chances each afternoon through the coming weekend. Rain chances
stay around 10- 20% for the Permian Basin during the same
timeframe. Highs each afternoon stay near to above normal with
most locations in the upper 90s to around 100F. As always, Big
Bend will be the hottest spot in the region with highs ranging
from 105-108F. By late this coming weekend and into next week, the
Four Corners ridge returns and a typical monsoon pattern takes
shape. If this holds, it would bring northwest flow aloft with
shortwaves rounding the periphery of the ridge and increase rain
chances across much of the CWA. Overall, a warm, but mostly
typical summer pattern expected in the extended.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Most convection has dissipated. VFR will prevail with light east
to southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               73 100  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70 100  72  98 /   0  10   0  10
Dryden                   74 100  75  98 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  99  75  97 /   0  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           69  91  70  88 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    69  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    61  89  64  89 /  10  30   0  30
Midland Intl Airport     74  99  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   74  98  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     72 100  75  98 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29