119
FXUS64 KMAF 281727
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

- Daily shower/storm chances, highest Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon
  into evening areawide before highest rain chances contract to
  Davis Mountains and northern Lea County mid to late next week
  into next weekend.

- Gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail are main risks with any
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

WV imagery this morning shows a messy upper ridge covering the
southern CONUS and areas south, still being undermined by a trough
over Alabama/Georgia. To the west, another trough sits offshore
of SoCal/Baja. Area radars show much less activity attm than 24
hours ago, and yesterday was probably the least active day for at
least the past week. KMAF RAOB came in with a PWAT of 1.23", which
is below the 90th percentile of 1.35" and closer to the 75th
percentile of 1.20", suggesting this wet spell is ending. Indeed,
NAEFS PWAT anomalies are decreasing, and KMAF radar bias is 0.92
as of 05Z, indicating that the airmass is no longer tropical. With
everything headed toward a drier forecast, and after a parley
w/the previous shift, we`ve decided to cancel the flood watch.
Latest QPF and CAMs POPs continue to focus on the Davis Mountains
through the weekend, but this area is too small for a watch, and
can be handled with FFWs as needed.

That said, thicknesses will increase today, adding a couple of
degrees to yesterday`s highs, which seems reasonable given less
cloud cover and the AMS drying out. As mentioned above, best
chances of convection will be in the Davis Mountains.

Tonight, unfortunately, lows will continue to average ~ 5-6 F
above normal, very similar to tonight`s, thanks to a 30+kt LLJ and
plenty of blanketing mid/high cloud to retard radiational
cooling.

Sunday, increasing thicknesses add yet another degree or so to
highs which, despite the warming trend, should top out within a
degree or two of normal. Again, best chances of rain will be in
the Davis Mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Forecast in the extended has not changed much since last forecast
runs, other than a more defined warming trend later next week,
and persistent signal for heavy rain over Davis Mountains and
northern Lea County. Deterministic and ensemble models depict core
of mid to upper level ridging remain to the north and west of the
area while 1000-500 mb thicknesses between 576 and 582 decameters
indicate seasonable warm columns. Weakness in 500 mb geopotential
heights assist passage of short wave troughs that provide mid to
upper forcing for ascent. WPC Surface Analysis also depicts lee
troughing over central to southeast NM, which provides forcing
near the surface and maintains humid, upslope easterly flow. Rain
chances increase from early in the week into mid week, with
accompanying increased cloud cover limiting diurnal heating and
evaporational cooling from precipitation further limiting warming
of the near surface layer. Correspondingly, temperatures decrease
from 90s, mid to upper 80s higher elevations and northern and
central Lea County, and upper 90s to triple digits along Rio
Grande from Presidio Valley to Big Bend on Monday, to upper 80s to
lower 90s, upper 70s to lower 80s higher elevations, and mid to
upper 90s along the Rio Grande Tuesday. Monday, NBM shows medium
PoPs by early afternoon with highest values over Davis Mountains
into southern Culberson County, and another patch over SE NM
plains, increasing to medium to high PoPs Upper Trans Pecos and SE
NM plains into northern and central Permian Basin. PoPs decrease
to low probabilities <30% except for Davis Mountains, before
increasing again Tuesday into the medium range, with highest PoPs
from Presidio Valley into Davis Mountains, SE NM plains, and
northwest Permian Basin. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night from
mid 60s to 70s expected as scattered to broken cloud cover and dew
point temperatures in 50s and 60s F from humid upslope southeast
winds limit radiational cooling. Wednesday, similar temperatures
and PoPs are forecast as tropospheric pattern remains similar to
earlier in the week. Lows Wednesday night warm by a few degrees,
but stay similar to previous nights.

Thursday into early next weekend sees a warming trend as
deterministic and ensemble models indicate mid to upper ridging
developing farther to the south and east and core of warm
anomalies shifting closer to the area. PoPs decrease to low
probabilities northeast of Davis Mountains into Big Bend but
remain in medium probability range with highest values from the
Presidio Valley into southern Culberson County, Davis Mountains,
and Big Bend, with lower to mid PoPs from Eddy County Plains into
Upper Trans Pecos and southeast Brewster County. Highs in upper
80s to lower 90s Upper Trans Pecos, northeast Permian Basin, and
along Rio Grande with 80s, upper 70s to lower 80s higher
elevations Thursday increase by 2 to 4 degrees each day northeast
of Davis Mountains where PoPs and cloud cover remain lower, while
temperatures remain in 80s over Marfa Plateau where PoPs stay in
medium probability range. Lows in the lower to mid 70s build west
and north late next week into the weekend as warmer temperatures
move in. We still maintain southerly winds, but grids indicate
drying signal in PoPs as trajectories become less southeasterly,
even as dew point temperatures northeast of Davis Mountains are in
mid to upper 60s F and dew point temperatures over Davis
Mountains and southwest are in upper 50s to mid 60s F.

Rainfall by the end of next week into next weekend continues to
show highest amounts over southern Culberson County into Davis
Mountains and Big Bend in both NBM and ensembles. NBM has
increased forecast amounts by a few tenths and decreased amounts
elsewhere compared to previous runs, now showing 0.50" to 1.00"
over Davis Mountains into Presidio Valley and 0.50" to 0.75" in
northern Lea County and up to 0.25" elsewhere. Lowest percentile
ensembles show at least a few tenths of rainfall over southern
Culberson County into Davis Mountains and Big Bend, with medium to
high probability of 0.50" to 0.75" over Davis Mountains and
northern Lea County, and low to medium probability of rainfall
over 1.00" in these same regions, with low probabilities elsewhere
and spread 0.25" to 0.75" indicating low potential for extremely
heavy rains, as only a low probability of PWATs above
climatological mean for this time of year is present where
heaviest amounts are predicted. We will continue to monitor how
forecasts of rainfall and temperatures in the extended evolve for
next week into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. Once again, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon (a couple
already have in the Davis Mountains). For now, went with PROB30s
at every site except MAF, where confidence was too low to include
mention in the TAF (though a stray storm still could develop near
the terminal). Otherwise, light southerly winds continue at every
site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               97  74  98  74 /  10  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 91  70  94  71 /  30  10  20  10
Dryden                   97  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            94  73  95  72 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           84  67  86  67 /  40  10  30  10
Hobbs                    91  70  93  69 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                    85  65  84  65 /  60  30  60  20
Midland Intl Airport     96  74  96  74 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                   95  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     94  73  95  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Chinati Mountains-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County
     Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...13