660
FXUS64 KMAF 021755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

- There is a low (10-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
  across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains this afternoon with the
  inclusion of the Permian Basin Sunday afternoon. Any
  thunderstorms may be capable of producing heavy downpours,
  frequent lightning, and strong winds.

- Widespread highs beyond the century mark are expected throughout
  the upcoming week. Several locations may reach Heat Advisory
  criteria at least Sunday through Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

With the upper-level ridge remaining off to our west through the
weekend, precipitation chances are in the forecast. A series of
shortwaves are expected to round the periphery of the aforementioned
ridge, bringing showers and thunderstorms to some locations. This
afternoon temperatures remain similar to yesterday with only minor
changes in the large scale pattern. Temperatures climb into the 90s
across the bulk of the region and any 100s remaining near the Rio
Grande. Easterly upslope flow and a passing trough this afternoon
should result in a low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms across the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Any thunderstorms that do develop
remain widely scattered with only brief downpours and frequent
lightning as expected hazards. Thunderstorms quickly weaken and
dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Lingering
cloud cover from earlier showers and thunderstorms keep most warm
into Sunday morning. Temperatures in the 70s are going to be common.
The cool spots will be across the mountains where temperatures fall
into the 60s.

The upper-level ridge begins to strength and move eastward through
Sunday. Temperatures are expected to push into the 100s for the bulk
of the area as a result. The mountains hold off on the triple digit
heat, remaining in the 90s for now, but the Big Bend may approach
110 near the Rio Grande. While temperatures increase, precipitation
chances are maintained. This is driven by a shortwave trough digging
across the central Great Plains and Lower Mississippi River Valley.
This is expected to promote afternoon thunderstorms across the Davis
Mountains with additional thunderstorms across the Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains. Both areas of thunderstorms are expected
to be high-based due to a hot and well-mixed boundary layer. This
may support strong winds under any stronger thunderstorms.
Otherwise, heavy downpours and frequent lightning continue to be
possible. After the loss of daytime heating and the aforementioned
trough moving off to our east, precipitation comes to an end. This
leads into the new work week and continuing heat. Temperatures start
in the 70s for most with the exception of portions of the mountains
and far Northern Permian Basin falling into the 60s at the start of
the day on Monday.

-Chehak
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The hot topic in the long term period is a heat wave triggered by an
upper-level ridge that is set to center itself near the Arizona/New
Mexico border Monday morning. Subsidence from this feature will lead
to a hot and dry weather pattern. A surface low is expected to help
shear a few degrees off of Monday`s temperatures compared to Sunday.
Highs Monday are forecast to reach into the 90s in much of the
Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the mountains and
surrounding foothills. The Trans Pecos and Big Bend look to see
highs in the 100s, with areas near and along the Rio Grande soaring
into the 105-112 degree range. Tuesday, lee troughing near the Great
Plains brings slightly breezy winds and highs surging beyond the
century mark for almost everyone except the mountains. By midweek,
the upper ridge becomes centered over New Mexico. Highs the rest of
the week generally remain in the upper 90s to 100s, with the hottest
temperatures near and along the Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers. Lows
each night will offer little relief, mainly settling into the 70s.
Additionally, aside from low (10-20%) rain chances in the Davis
Mountains Monday, dry conditions are expected throughout the long
term period. The big takeaway here is to be prepared for the heat!
Several days may require heat products over various locations in the
near future!


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light,
southeasterly winds will remain predominate. Any thunderstorms
this afternoon should remain over the higher elevations and
outside of TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               72 100  70  96 /   0  20  30   0
Carlsbad                 73 102  72 100 /   0  10  10   0
Dryden                   74 102  76 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            74 102  74 103 /   0  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10   0
Hobbs                    70 100  68  96 /   0  10  10   0
Marfa                    63  93  65  95 /  10  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     74 101  72  98 /   0  10  20   0
Odessa                   73 100  72  97 /   0  10  20   0
Wink                     73 102  73 102 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...91