371
FXUS64 KMAF 160730
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for
  areas south of I-10 through at least Friday.

- Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the
  areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings.

- Below normal temperatures continue through the weekend, before
  warmer and drier weather returns early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Current water vapor imagery clearly shows the swirl of an upper
level low centered over our CWA this morning. This low will be the
main cause of instability leading to scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning later this morning and continuing into
Friday. High precipitable water values indicate any convection
should be prolific rain producers and the threat for flash
flooding continues. The main limiting factor in flooding will be
the cellular nature of the showers and decent movement allowing
a briefer time over any area. Still, even a half an hour of
rainfall could produce over an inch of rainfall so remain alert
for flooding, especially at low water crossings. The abundant rain
and clouds again limits afternoon highs to the 80s both today and
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Rain chances diminish this weekend as the upper low moves into
northern Mexico. Areas west of the Pecos River will have the best
chance at receiving additional rain this weekend, especially in
the higher elevations. Persons vacationing in the parks in the Big
Bend should remain alert for the threat for flash flooding this
weekend.

Rain chances decrease in the western zones early next and the
entire CWA will be dry as a large high pressure system over the
Texas Panhandle. Enjoy the cool temperatures the next few days
because 500mb heights near 560dam indicate temperatures will be
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees by the middle of next week.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Models are still showing MVFR CIGs moving into the TAF sites
within the next 6 hours. VFR conditions should then redevelop
after 18Z and continue through the end of the TAF period.
Scattered showers and storms will develop after 15Z affecting some
of the terminals directly, and in the local flying area of other
sites. Erratic wind direction and speeds can be expected near any
convection.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               81  67  84  68 /  70  60  50  30
Carlsbad                 90  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                   89  69  90  70 /  50  60  60  30
Fort Stockton            86  67  88  68 /  50  20  40  20
Guadalupe Pass           83  64  85  65 /  20  10  40  30
Hobbs                    85  65  87  65 /  20  20  20  40
Marfa                    81  57  83  58 /  70  10  40  40
Midland Intl Airport     81  67  85  68 /  70  50  40  20
Odessa                   82  67  85  68 /  70  40  40  20
Wink                     86  68  90  68 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Borden-Central Brewster-
     Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...10