093
FXUS64 KMAF 222305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

- There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms Friday and
  Saturday, mainly over the Western Low Rolling Plains.

- Warm temperatures are expected through the weekend, with
  Saturday being the hottest day within the forecast.

- A cold front begins to sweep in Sunday night, bringing much
  cooler temperatures and respectable chances of rain next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Above normal temperatures continue in the short term period under
the influence of an upper-level ridge. South and southeasterly winds
tonight promote lows in the 60s to low 70s along with plenty of
moisture. A warm morning becomes a hot afternoon as highs Friday hit
the upper 90s low triple digits. The hottest conditions will lie
over the Upper Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande River valley.
The Big Bend area is expected to be heat up to near 110 degrees!
Although this meets Heat Advisory criteria, coverage looks quite
small, therefore we shall refrain from issuing at the moment. The
heat and increased moisture bring about the low (10%-20%) potential
for afternoon shower/thunderstorm development along the dryline from
the northeastern Permian Basin down toward the Davis Mountains. The
best rain chances will be in the vicinity of the Davis`. With deep
layer sheer values between 20-30 kts, storm organization should be
more multicellular. Something to note, HRRR forecast soundings in
these areas show inverted v features, indicating strong downdrafts,
or outflow, and the potential for damaging winds with the strongest
storms. Should any storms become severe, there will also be a threat
of large hail. Otherwise, temperatures Friday night bottom out in
the 60s and 70s again, but the 70s expand in coverage compared to
the night before.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

The heat continues to crank up on Saturday as we enter the peak of
an upper-level ridge. Highs are forecast to hit the upper 90s and
push beyond the century mark in several locations, including
Midland/Odessa. Diurnally-driven showers/thunderstorms will be
possible near the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau Saturday
afternoon.

The heat relents a bit by Sunday as an upper-level trough begins to
approach from the west. Geopotential height start to lower, allowing
for highs in the 90s to become more commonplace. Sunday, lee
troughing begins to drag a cold front down from the north. The cold
front continues to march its way through the area during the day
Monday, resulting in highs in the 80s across the Permian Basin, 90s
elsewhere. Lift associated with the front and the dryline will help
provide rain chances Sunday afternoon, mainly within the eastern
half of our region. Given ample shear and instability, a few storms
could become severe as the front pushes in.

The cold front finally reaches down toward the Rio Grande Valley by
Tuesday, dropping highs into the upper 70s and 80s for most both
Tuesday and Wednesday. Continued advection of moisture from the east
means daily rain chances areawide beginning Tuesday through the end
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

For now, any storms look to stay east of MAF/FST, but the
possibility remains that showers/storms may move near those
terminals. Southeasterly winds take hold late tonight for all
except at CNM. MVFR cloud deck will move in near MAF/FST after
8-10z tomorrow morning. VFR at all terminals until then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67 100  71 101 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 65 101  66 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            70 101  71 101 /  20  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           66  93  67  90 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    63  98  65  99 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    61  92  61  92 /  10  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     69 100  73 100 /  10  10   0  10
Odessa                   69  99  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     70 101  70 102 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...93