176
FXUS64 KMAF 201117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
617 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 607 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

- Near normal temperatures are expected today and Thursday behind a
weak cold front. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected with a low to medium (20-50%) chance for most locations
each day. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall are
the main hazards with stronger thunderstorms.

- Warm temperatures persist through the weekend. Dew point
temperatures drop into the 50s F Friday and persist into the
weekend, bringing less humid weather for the end of this week into
this weekend. More humid conditions return next week as dew point
temperatures increase back into the 60s F.

- Low (15% to 25%) probability of showers/storms exist Thursday night
and Friday for Big Bend into Terrell County and Marfa Plateau.
Probability of rain decreases to very low across most of the area
this weekend, with probabilities only increasing over the northern
SE NM plains and northern Permian Basin early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The overall forecast remains relatively unchanged despite subtle
differences in the large scale pattern. A few showers and
thunderstorms continue just after midnight, but these will
gradually weaken and dissipate over the next several hours. The
above normal temperatures we have been experiencing are expected
to cool down to near normal by morning. This is behind a weak cold
front that is slowly sagging south through the southern Great
Plains this morning. Morning temperatures in the upper 60s and
lower 70s start the day for many. A light northeast wind and
filtered sunshine warm the area into the upper 80s and lower 90s
by afternoon. This daytime heating in conjunction with the weak
cold front is anticipated to result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region once again. Just about everyone
can expect a medium (30-50%) chance of precipitation into the
evening hours. Heading into Thursday, nearly a carbon copy of
today is expected. The only main difference is a slight lowering
of precipitation chances as the influence of the cold front
lessens as it continues to move south of the area. That being
said, all but far northern reaches of the area can expect a low to
medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms once again.
Other than this change, temperatures hold steady right around
normal across the region. The main hazards with any thunderstorms
each day would be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall. With any slow-moving thunderstorms, heavy rainfall may
cause rapid rainfall accumulations and localized flash flooding
can not be completely ruled out. That said, most areas that
receive rainfall are most likely to receive only a few tenths of
an inch.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Big Bend into Terrell County sees a low (15% to 20%) probability
of showers/storms Thursday night as nighttime cooling weakens
existing storms. Lows fall into the mid to upper 60s F, upper 60s
to lower 70s F along Pecos River into eastern and southern Permian
Basin and Terrell County, mid 70s F along Rio Grande, and upper
50s to lower 60s F Marfa Plateau. Mid to upper ridging intensifies
west into the Four Corners and Great Basin Friday. Increasing
large scale sinking motion near the ridging reduces rain chances
to very low, except for Big Bend into Terrell County and the Marfa
Plateau. Here, a low (15% to 25%) probability of showers/storms
continues due to daytime heating of elevated terrain, terrain
induced circulations, and upslope flow in persistent easterly near
surface winds. Highs Friday rise into the mid to upper 90s F, mid
to upper 80s F higher elevations, and upper 90s F along the Rio
Grande, with triple digit readings confined to Big Bend.

Rain chances decrease further this weekend to very low across the
area, as most showers/storms bypass the area to the north. A
surface low over far W TX, with troughing extending east-northeast
into north-central and northwest TX, will not significantly
influence winds. East/southeast winds continue on the southern end
of the ridge. Reduced rain chances this weekend and minimal cloud
cover contribute to high temperatures rising into the mid to
upper 90s F, upper 80s F higher elevations, and upper 90s F to
triple digits along Rio Grande. Low fall into mid to upper 60s F,
lower 70s F eastern and southern parts of the area, and upper 50s
to lower 60s F over Marfa Plateau. Highs cool by a few degrees
cool by a few degrees next week as a quasi-stionary front develops
southwest form the TX panhandle and surface lee troughing
redevelops over SE NM, increasing lift for cloud formation. Low
rain probabilities return only to the northern SE NM plains and
northern Permian Basin early next week. Increased cloud cover,
resulting from increased near surface lift, increases lows by a
few degrees, so cooler nights are not yet in the picture. Dew
point temperatures increase from the 50s back into the 60s F as
winds veer more to southerly, ending the long term on a warm and
humid note once more. Rainfall accumulations of a few hundredths
to tenths of an inch at most over northern parts of the area are
anticipated into early next week as the drier pattern holds until
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period across the
region. Light winds this morning will quickly become
northeasterly behind a cold front moving south through the region
early this morning. A weakening band of showers accompanies this
cold front, but aviation impacts are not anticipated. Winds
gradually shift to easterly through the afternoon. Once again,
afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected across the
region. By mid-afternoon this activity is expected to develop
across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin, possibly
impacting CNM, HOB, and MAF first. This precipitation should move
southwest across the remaining terminals through the late
afternoon and early evening before weakening and dissipating after
sunset. The highest confidence in timing is included in the TAF
forecast. Direct aviation impacts to terminals remains uncertain,
due to the scattered coverage of thunderstorms. If impacts do
occur, gusty and variable winds and brief visibility reductions
from heavy rain are possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  71  95  70 /  40  20  20  10
Carlsbad                 90  70  93  70 /  40  10  10   0
Dryden                   97  74  97  73 /  20  20  40  20
Fort Stockton            93  70  94  69 /  30  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass           83  66  85  67 /  40  10  20   0
Hobbs                    90  67  92  67 /  40  10  20  10
Marfa                    85  61  85  59 /  50  20  50  10
Midland Intl Airport     93  71  94  71 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                   92  71  94  71 /  30  20  30  10
Wink                     91  70  94  70 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...91