300
FXUS64 KMAF 151142
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 536 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions persist this
  upcoming work week.

- Windy conditions developing across the high terrain of West
  Texas and southeast New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 341 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The storm system that brought us rainfall and breezy conditions
continues tracking further east of our region today, allowing an
upper ridge to build in. Winds this morning remain out of the
north/northwest, but gradually gain a southerly component as a
surface high sets up to our northeast later today. Temperatures
today warm into the upper 60s to low 70s, then dip into the 40s
tonight. Monday, the ridge axis shifts eastward and winds aloft
become southwesterly as another storm system approaches from the
Pacific Northwest. In response to this, southwesterly surface
winds also become a touch breezy Monday afternoon, kicking highs
into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. A few locations
along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend are expected to reach the low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Breezy to windy conditions await us in the long term period. This
courtesy of an approaching upper trough that looks to eventually
span over most of the CONUS by midweek. Models indicate a series
of dry shortwaves will pass within a larger upper trough, each
generating their own surface lows that will result in elevated
winds and increased fire weather concerns. West and southwesterly
surface winds become breezy to strong Tuesday and Wednesday. The
strongest winds are expected in and near the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains, where High Wind criteria may be possible both days.
Thursday, the trough`s jet core begins to shift eastward. Winds
shall remain breezy during the afternoon, though not to the same
degree as the previous two days. By Friday, the upper trough
pushes a cold front into our region and the jet core continues an
eastward progression.

Aside from several rounds of elevated winds, this week will feature
mild to warm temperatures. Tuesday is set to be our warmest day in
the forecast period. Expect highs in the 70s over much of southeast
New Mexico and the higher terrain in west Texas, 80s at most
locations, and 90s in the Big Bend. Highs in the 70s become more
prevalent Wednesday and Thursday, though portions of southeast New
Mexico shall top out in the upper 60s, while our southernmost
counties generally hover in the 80s. A cold front results in highs
in the 60s across much of the region Friday and Saturday. Lows most
nights settle into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Light northwesterly winds continue through the day at all
terminals. Winds bend towards the southeast by this evening. VFR
prevails for the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  42  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  41  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   76  46  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  47  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           63  45  70  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    69  40  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    68  36  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     71  44  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  41  80  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...93