168
FXUS64 KMAF 022322
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Below normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend
  before highs rebound near to above normal by next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The latest surface analysis continues to show high pressure over the
region, allowing for some clearing. Meanwhile, a weak trough located
across southeast New Mexico and far west Texas keeps some mid/upper
level clouds overhead throughout the rest of the day. There may be
enough forcing and moisture to squeeze out a few sprinkles across
our western zones this afternoon (including portions of southeast
New Mexico). Surface ridging helps afternoon highs rise into the mid
60s to low 70s for most (50s in higher terrain). Tonight, skies
become mostly clear and overnight lows remain in the mid 40s to low
50s. By Sunday, weak ridging aloft returns to the area while the
surface ridge moves east. This yields warmer afternoon temperatures,
with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s. Sunday night, lows
look to be 6 to 8 degrees warmer than tonight`s as increased cloud
cover limits radiational cooling.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Weak ridging aloft continues across the area on Monday while surface
troughing develops across west Texas and portions of southeast New
Mexico. Meanwhile, southwesterly downslope winds return to the area.
As a result, afternoon highs trend warmer and top out into the mid
80s to around 90 degrees. Some spots along the Rio Grande can expect
temperatures to top out into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. By
Tuesday, guidance shows an upper-level trough with an associated jet
max moving over southeast New Mexico and west Texas. However, this
looks to be a dry system as westerly winds at the surface bring in
drier air. This yields breezy conditions across southeast New Mexico
and portions of Permian Basin, with stronger winds in the
Guadalupe/Delaware Mountains. However, there may be enough moisture
on Tuesday night to bring a couple of showers and storms across
portions of our far eastern zones. Though the best chances of
receiving any appreciable rainfall currently remains to our east.
Breezy winds and warm conditions can also be expected during the day
Wednesday ahead of an advancing cold front. Behind the cold front,
lows fall into the 40s to mid 50s across most of the area (upper 50s
to low 60s near/along the Rio Grande). Temperatures cool into the
70s across much of the region Thursday before rebounding back into
the 80s by Friday. Dry conditions continue through the latter part
of next week.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds remain light from
the south/southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               51  78  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 48  77  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   53  77  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            51  81  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           49  71  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    46  75  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    42  76  48  85 /   0  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     52  77  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   52  77  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     50  78  56  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...13