041
FXUS64 KMAF 051845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
145 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through at least Sunday,
  mainly in the afternoon and evening. Any severe storms that do
  develop will be accompanied by large hail and/or damaging winds
  and/or a tornado or two.

- Temperatures will increase through the weekend, when several
  locations could see triple digits. Heat advisories may be
  needed, especially for mountainous areas and the Rio Grande
  Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Deep moisture extends across the region with dewpoints between 65-
70F stretching into southeast New Mexico. The 12z MAF sounding came
in with 1.46" PWATs good for the 99th percentile for June 5th based
on sounding climatology. Anomalously high moisture combined with a
sharpening dryline to the west and a stalled boundary across the
northern Permian Basin will lead to severe storms this afternoon and
late into this evening. Across the northern CWA, steep lapse rates,
~40-45kts bulk shear, and plenty of CAPE signify an environment
favorable for significant(>2"), damaging winds, and even a tornado
or two. Heavy rain and lightning will accompany any thunderstorms
with conditions also favorable for flooding in urban areas as well
as the threat for wet microbursts. Similar conditions exist south of
I-10/I-20, but the main threats will be very large hail and damaging
winds with only a tornado possible in the most organized cells.
Storms will be isolated to scattered in nature through about 10-11pm
CDT before moving off to the east out of the area or slowly
decaying.

Friday morning will be similar this morning as temperatures settle
above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s for most. Plenty of
moisture sticks around and the dryline lines up once again on the
windward side of the Davis Mountains. Severe storms will once again
develop in the afternoon. This time, much of the focus will be over
the Trans Pecos and into the Stockton Plateau. Any severe storms
will be capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging
winds. How convection evolves today will have some impact on what
the storms develop Friday afternoon. Highs tomorrow afternoon reach
above normal into the mid to upper 90s for most with a few spots
hitting the century mark. Big Bend staying the hottest in the region
with highs topping out around 110F.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Saturday, the upper ridge is forecast to center over
Chihuahua/Coahila, resulting in increased thicknesses over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  This looks to be the warmest day
this forecast, with triple digits in the Pecos River Valley and
parts of the Permian Basin, in addition to the usual locations.
Highs should top out ~ 8-10 F above normal.  A Heat Advisory or two
may be needed for the Davis Mountains and a few areas south.

Saturday night, convection to the north will push a boundary south,
but models stall this feature along the northern CWA border.  To the
south, the upper ridge is forecast to shift west more to Chihuahua.
All this will result in slightly cooler temperatures Sunday
northeast, and slightly warmer southwest.  Again, heat advisories
will likely be needed over the mountains, and areas south.  Sunday
evening, convection will be possible along the aforementioned
boundary as shortwaves move through the northeast periphery of the
ridge.  Deep-layer bulk shear, instability, and mid-level lapse
rates suggest severe weather potential will persist.

Monday, the front pushes farther into the area, with thicknesses
plummeting and highs coming down, especially north.  Convective
chances, possibly severe, will increase along and behind the front.
CAA continues southwest Tuesday as the front pushes into Mexico.
Tuesday will be perhaps the coolest day this forecast as highs
bottom out near to around 5 F below normal.  Convective chances
persist.

Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures begin a gradual recovery under
northwest flow aloft.  A few storms looks possible Wednesday in the
higher terrain in easterly upslope flow, with return flow resuming
Thursday.

The good news, obviously, is that the big ridge has not shown up
yet, nor is forecast for the next week or two.  So chances persist
to squeeze a little more moisture out of the atmosphere before it
does.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Low clouds resulting in MVFR ceilings have overspread all sites
with the exception of PEQ. These ceilings are expected to lift and
clear from southwest to northeast through the middle to late
morning. VFR conditions are expected beyond this time frame.
Southeasterly winds remain prevailing, but are expected to become
stronger this afternoon. Thunderstorms remain possible, the
highest confidence in impacts are at PEQ, FST, and HOB during the
late afternoon to early evening. Brief visibility reductions to
mVFR or even IFR and gusty, erratic winds are to be expected in
and around thunderstorms. For remaining terminals the threat of
thunderstorms remains less confident. If confidence increases,
thunderstorms may be introduced into the TAF. Thunderstorms will
dissipate or exit TAF sites to the east during the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  95  72 100 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 68  98  68 101 /  10  20  10   0
Dryden                   75  98  75 103 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  98  72 102 /  40  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           68  93  70  95 /  10  20  10   0
Hobbs                    64  93  66  99 /  30  20  10   0
Marfa                    65  91  65  95 /  40  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     72  95  73 102 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                   71  95  72 100 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                     70  98  71 104 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91