709
FXUS64 KMAF 231116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

- Dry weather expected with temperatures remaining near normal
  today through Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures return Tuesday and Wednesday. There
  will also be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms
  (30-60 percent) Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Upper-level high pressure is forecast to remain centered near the
Four Corners through Sunday afternoon. The associated ridge axis
will continue to hold strong across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas this weekend. Mostly clear skies and dry weather conditions
are expected to remain prevalent across our forecast area
underneath this feature through Sunday afternoon. A brief rain
shower or two cannot be entirely ruled out near the Rio Grande in
southern Brewster county or in Terrell county this afternoon and
Sunday afternoon, but we will keep rain chances 10 percent or
less over those locations, as any isolated cells that develop
will be very sparse in coverage. High temperatures today and
Sunday will continue to range in the lower to mid 90s across much
of the region, except for readings in the 80s over higher terrain
areas and in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees along the Rio
Grande. Lows tonight will generally range in the 60s to lower 70s
for most of the region, except for readings in the 50s in the
higher elevations of the Davis Mountains and in the Marfa Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

The upper-level ridge will shift southeastward into much of
Texas early next week as an upper-level trough deepens over the
Great Lakes and the Ohio/Tennessee Valley regions. A surface cold
front is forecast to push southward into the Texas Panhandle and
the Red River Valley by Monday afternoon before becoming oriented
across far southeast New Mexico and into the Permian Basin by
Tuesday and Wednesday. A plume of deep layer moisture will shift
into southeast New Mexico and west Texas along the vicinity of the
front and will combine with shortwave impulses embedded along the
northern periphery of the upper-level ridge to bring an increasing
chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of our region both
days. The best chance (30-40 percent) of showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday will be focused across portions of southeast New
Mexico and the northern Permian Basin in the vicinity of the
front, as well as across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Marfa
Plateau, and Big Bend regions. POPs increase to 40-50 percent over
much of our area by Wednesday, with the highest chances around 60
percent focused over western portions of our CWA, including the
Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, Van Horn Corridor, and Marfa Plateau.
Temperatures will trend cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with the
front in our area (and also given the increased cloud cover/rain
chances). The coolest day looks to be on Wednesday when highs are
forecast to range in the 80s over much of the region, except for
readings in the 90s along the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande.

The upper-level ridge axis should continue to flatten across
central and south Texas late next week. Shortwave impulses
embedded within continued westerly to northwesterly flow aloft
along with abundant deep layer moisture will support keeping
scattered (30-50 percent chance) showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast over our region Thursday and Friday. High temperatures
may trend a little warmer with readings back into the lower to mid
90s late next week (except for 80s in the mountains and in the
upper 90s to around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande). Early
morning lows will continue to range in the 60s to lower 70s over
most of our area each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR will continue through the TAF period. Light easterly to
northeasterly winds early this morning will increase to around 10
knots with a few gusts over 15 knots by early this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 94  68  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  70  95  71 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  67  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           84  64  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    91  65  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   92  69  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     94  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...21