618
FXUS64 KMAF 050001
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
701 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

- Low rain chances return Sunday (10-30%, up to 50% in the Davis
  Mountains).

- Temperatures gradually warm closer to/above normal through next
  week with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Mesoscale Analysis this morning depicts the shortwave trough
beginning to move off to the north and east of west Texas and
southeast New Mexico. Meanwhile, the remnants of Tropical Storm
Barry are currently moving off to the east into Central Texas, where
a lot of very impactful flooding is ongoing. For our area, after a
very active and wet week, we are going to catch a bit of a break
today. Some isolated to scattered showers (and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two) remain possible in the Davis Mountains, Big
Bend, and eastern Permian Basin (the product of moist upslope
flow plus some convergence from a very weak boundary/wind shift
associated with the trough axis). These areas have a 10-40% chance
of seeing additional rainfall this afternoon and early evening.
Nevertheless, most locations will remain dry this afternoon and
evening, which is great news for any 4th of July celebrations!
However, highs today are expected to be seasonably warm (90s and
upper 80s). This, coupled with continued anomalously high
atmospheric moisture, means a very muggy day is in store across
the region. That being the case, be sure to stay hydrated and cool
off if you get too hot! Otherwise, what rain chances there are
drop off pretty quick after sunset, and lows tonight will bottom
out in the upper 60s and low 70s for most. Some patchy fog may
once again develop over the northern Permian Basin tonight as
well.

Saturday, ridging starts to build in from the west. This will help
limit cloud cover and cause highs to rebound back into the mid to
upper 90s. Lows similar to that of tonight are also expected. Some
(at least low) rain chances begin to reappear going into the long
term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

While the extended looks much drier than what we`ve seen as of late,
there will still be opportunities for rain across the area. One of
those opportunities will be Sunday as ridging aloft weakens allowing
an inverted trough to approach the region from the east. Scattered
(20-40%) showers and storms are expected to develop by afternoon
with highest coverage over the mountains. With the added clouds,
high temperatures will fall back below average to the upper 80s and
low 90s.

Monday looks similar before ridging re-strengthens over the Desert
SW midweek. This will signal a return to a more typical July pattern
with temperatures back in the mid to upper 90s and precipitation
chances confined mostly to the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Saturday
afternoon. Winds will generally become light southerly to
southeasterly this evening before shifting more northerly to
easterly Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon as a surface
trough of low pressure settles across western portions of our
forecast area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  72  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 94  71  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   94  72  95  73 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  73  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           86  70  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  68  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    86  64  92  65 /  20   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  73  96  72 /  20  10   0  10
Odessa                   92  71  96  71 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                     94  70  98  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...21