155
FXUS64 KMAF 101141
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Gusty south/southwest winds Tuesday and a warming trend with lighter
  winds into end of the week before south/southwest winds
  increase ahead of a storm system approaching from the Pacific
  Coast, Great Basin, and Desert SW.

- Breezy winds Friday, then gustier winds and cooler temperatures Saturday
  in association with a Pacific cold front accompanying the upper
  storm system progressing east to the north of the area. A
  return to near freezing lows by next Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A cold morning is in store as a surface high pressure system
builds in the Central Plains allowing clear skies and light
easterly to southeasterly winds to occur. These conditions will
drive temperatures to be in the low to upper 30s with a few spots
in the higher terrain and northern Permian Basin being in the
upper 20s. There will be a few localized spots that is going to
experience their first near freezing temperatures, especially over
portions of the eastern/northeastern Permian Basin extending to
portions of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. A Freeze
Warning is in effect for Culberson County through 9 PM CST as
there is higher confidence in widespread freezing temperatures
occurring in this zone. Be sure to protect plants and bring any
pets indoors!

Today, upper-level ridging builds in west of the region creating
northwesterly flow aloft. Surface winds veer southerly to
southwesterly, resulting in temperatures being a couple of degrees
warmer compared to yesterday. Surface lee troughing begins to
develop out west creating breezy winds across southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin.

By Tuesday, upper-level ridging builds further near the region
where winds aloft shift to westerly. As a result, high
temperatures jump into the mid 70s to mid 80s for most locations.
Breezy winds across much of the forecast area will be in play
thanks to a transient pattern between a surface high pressure to
the east with low pressure to the north. The aforementioned low
pressure is expected to move towards the region sending down a
weak front by Wednesday morning.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The long term forecast has not changed much since the last
forecast package. We still expect very dry conditions
characterized by dew point temperatures below 45F areawide and
largely in the 20s and 30s F, as well near zero rain chances -
until a slight uptick to very low but nonzero rain chances and
slightly higher dew point temperatures in the 30s and 40s F during
the weekend. We also still see a warming trend until late week
before a storm system and accompanying Pacific cold front knock
temperatures closer to seasonal levels by the weekend, even as
more recent runs have trended earlier with the Pacific cold front
passage. Tuesday night, amidst west/southwest winds shifting to
northerly with a weak frontal/trough passage, lows fall into the
upper 30s to mid 40s F range. Strengthening ridging in the upper
air pattern building east from the Desert SW and accompanying
large scale sinking motion along with lee troughing re-
establishing over SE NM allow for adiabatic warming and highs
rising into the mid 70s to lower 80s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F
higher elevations, and mid 80s to upper 80s F along Rio Grande.
With warmer daytime highs, lows Wednesday night consequently fall
into the mid 40s to mid 50s F range. Following warmer overnight
lows, still warmer highs Thursday in the lower to mid 80s F, mid
to upper 70s F higher elevations, and upper 80s to lower 90s F
along Rio Grande are forecast. Lows Thursday night fall into the
upper 40s F to mid 50s F range apart from lower to mid 40s F peaks
of Davis Mountains and basins of Culberson County as
south/southwest winds throughout the lower atmosphere increase
ahead of a storm system approaching from the Pacific Coast and
developing into the Great Basin and Desert SW.

Friday is where timing and location of this upper system becomes
more uncertain. Guidance suggests strengthening of the lee
troughing over SE NM in response to increased southwest flow, but
as the continental dry airmass will be slow to be dislodged,
clouds limiting diurnal heating will not be quick to increase and
highs Friday are still indicated as being similar to Thursdays.
Winds have come down in most recent forecast runs, however there
is still a signal of gusty southwest winds over higher elevations
and most of the Permian Basin into Friday night, keeping lows
similar to Thursday night as transport of warmer air from northern
MX is maintained. By Saturday, CAA arrives in the area as the
Pacific cold front is still progged to surge through the area.
While best lift and moisture will bypass area to the north, low
rain chances are apparent over western higher terrain into Eddy
County Plains and then northern Permian Basin into the evening.
The biggest story is still likely to end up being the winds. Gusty
west/northwest winds with relative maximums over higher
elevations and Permian Basin pose a risk of not only blowing dust
but higher than average fire weather conditions. CAA counteracts
adiabatic heating from downsloping winds, resulting in upper 50s
to lower 60s F higher elevations and lower to mid 60s F adjoining
plains northwest of central Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau
into Big Bend, and lower 70s F, upper 70s to mid 80s F Rio Grande
basins into Terrell County. Rainfall only a few hundredths of an
inch at most due to the very dry air does next to nothing to dent
ongoing drought. Like gusty winds, the more certain aspect of
weekend weather will be cooler temperatures behind the Pacific
front, as lows next Saturday night fall back into the lower to mid
30s F higher elevations, basins of Culberson County into western
and northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin and 40s F
elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light
southeasterly to southerly winds this morning will increase later
across most terminals. Occasional gusts up to 20-25 kts may occur
especially at HOB and MAF during the late morning through
afternoon timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  39  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   66  38  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            69  45  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           59  44  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    63  37  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  33  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  42  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  42  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     65  38  80  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...11