986
FXUS64 KMAF 050831
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 143 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions of varying extent are possible
  each afternoon beginning today through Saturday, mainly over
  Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- More record highs in store the rest of the week as unprecedented
  warmth continues as well as periods of high winds in the
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains beginning this afternoon.

- A dry cold front arrives Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 143 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Areas of low clouds and fog continue to spread across the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos. Visibilities are not all that low, but some
locations will see these drop below a mile at times. By late
morning, surface flow will begin to veer to the southwest and low
level moisture will get shoved east. Strong, downslope flow along
with clearing skies will send temperatures soaring back into the 80s
once again. And, for the third day in a row Midland Intl is looking
at surpassing another record high (81 set in 2006). Expect another
mild night as low level moisture once again slides west across the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Low clouds and fog will develop
mainly affected locations along and south of I-20 by Thursday
morning. Very little changes by afternoon with high probabilities
(90%) of hitting another record high at Midland Intl (83 set in
1950). Hopefully the plants can hold back from thinking spring is
here, even with several more days of record highs coming.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Broad upper level ridging influences our weather through much of the
weekend. Morning lows Friday through Saturday drop into the 40s and
50s. Downslope flow sends afternoon highs Friday and Saturday well
above normal, in the 80s, while areas near the Rio Grande warm into
the 90s. Within zonal flow over the Rockies, a mountain wave
signature develops, driving gusty winds over the Guadalupe/Delaware
Mountains Friday and Saturday afternoons. Combining these stronger
winds with the above average temperatures and the fact that we have
been relatively dry, elevated fire weather will be of concern for
these days.

Friday, lee troughing develops a surface low over the Great Plains.
Our abnormally warm weather is cut short as the associated cold
front backdoors our area overnight Saturday, leading to highs Sunday
in the 50s over the Permian Basin, 60s in the Trans Pecos, and 70s
to 80s closer to the Rio Grande.

A surface high over the Great Plains keeps chilly air flowing into
the region through the first half of next week. However, the colder
air looks to struggle to push west of the mountains. Saturday night
marks the return of lows in the 30s and 40s, with highs in the 50s
and 60s for most through Wednesday, while those near the Rio
Grande are expected to warm into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

VFR conditions prevail to start off this TAF period. Low level
moisture will continue to increase through the night across the
Permian Basin and into far southeastern portions of southeast New
Mexico. IFR to LIFR ceilings will likely develop over these
portions of the area by 09-12Z Wednesday, including near the KMAF
and KHOB terminals. There is also potential for patchy fog to
reduce visibility to MVFR to IFR thresholds at KMAF and possibly
very locally down to LIFR at KHOB for a few hours early Wednesday
morning. Increasing southerly low level jet could result in low
level wind shear up to around 35 kt about 1500-2000 ft AGL in the
Permian Basin overnight. Conditions should improve to VFR after
15Z, with winds veering southwesterly and increasing to 10-15
knots with some gusts up around 25 knots over most terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures, consequent lower relative
humidity, and increased 20-ft winds expected this afternoon have
prompted a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement for Southeast New
Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and adjacent areas of West Texas.
Similar conditions are expected Friday and Saturday afternoons. Higher
ERCs will be confined to the south, and not coincident with
elevated fire weather conditions northwest. In addition, CIPS
analogs suggest the threat will be elevated at worst.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               84  51  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 83  41  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   82  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            87  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  49  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    82  42  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    81  45  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     82  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   83  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     86  42  84  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...29