286
FXUS64 KMAF 011800
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- A cold front and a mid-level disturbance brings low (10-30%)
  rain chances across our region later this afternoon and into the
  evening. By early Saturday morning, the best rain chances shift
  over our northernmost counties.

- Temperatures start to climb as a ridge of high pressure builds
  overhead. Saturday will be the last day of near normal
  temperatures for many, at least, for a little while.

- Widespread low to mid 100 degree temperatures begin on Sunday
  and continue through next week. Heat advisories may be needed
  for many locations, especially on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

An upper-level ridge is centered just off to our west. Before this
feature takes control of our weather pattern, some of us are getting
another shot at rainfall and relatively cooler temperatures. These
courtesy of a mid-level disturbance rounding the ridge and a cold
front. The cold front that began to sag into our area yesterday
morning is stalling near the Pecos River. Lift from the front and
the disturbance, along with ample moisture, helps trigger a few
showers and storms this evening and into tonight. Storm activity
looks to be on the isolated side and have the potential to develop
anywhere within our region. Late this afternoon, low (10-20%) rain
chances lie over the entire region. Tonight, the best (10-30%) rain
chances shift over to portions of southeast New Mexico and the
northern Permian Basin. Short-range models are hinting at a line of
storms developing over northeastern New Mexico and progressing
southeast into the Panhandle, then beginning to dissipate before
entering our northern counties around sunrise Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon, the ridge starts to tighten its grip on our region,
limiting rain chances to the Davis Mountains, where they remain at
10-20%.

While chances for precipitation dwindle, temperatures will be on the
rise. Behind the cold front, those in the northern Permian Basin
will see temperatures dip into the mid to upper 60s tonight. The
mountains and surrounding foothills also settle into the 60s, though
elsewhere drops into the 70s. Saturday afternoon, most can expect
highs in the 90s, but triple digits are forecast near and along the
Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers. Lows in the 70s become more prevalent
Saturday night. Summer heat kicks into full gear in the long term
period. Read all about it below!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A prolonged heat wave is nearly upon us. Sunday will see
temperatures climb as the upper-level ridge is expected to become
centered near our area. That said, a weak passing shortwave trough
rounding the ridge may bring a slight chance of thunderstorms to the
Davis Mountains and Western Low Rolling Plains late in the afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, expect dry conditions as temperatures breach
the century mark for all but the higher elevations. This upper-level
ridge will likely strengthen at the start of next week, further
fueling the heat. Monday and Tuesday may end up as the hottest days
of the forecast. Temperatures push well into the 100s for much of
the region with temperatures approaching 110 along portions of the
Pecos and Rio Grande. The higher elevations may even flirt with
temperatures near 100. With this kind of heat anticipated, Heat
Advisories may be needed for many locations. By Wednesday, the heat
lessens a small amount as the upper-level ridge retrogrades westward
and weakens slightly. With that being said, temperatures near 100
are common for the lower elevations with upper 90s across the higher
elevations through the end of the week. Unfortunately, overnight
temperatures do little to offer any relief with low to mid 70s the
norm for all but the higher elevations. Everyone should be prepared
for our first true taste of summer heat this season.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected for most sites. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop later today and into the
overnight hours. However, due to uncertainty in timing and
location, have left out PROB30s and TEMPOs at the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  95  72 102 /  20  10   0  10
Carlsbad                 71  97  74 102 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   76 100  74 103 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            73  98  73 102 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           68  89  71  94 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    67  95  71 101 /  20  10   0  10
Marfa                    64  89  63  94 /  10  20   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     72  96  74 102 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                   72  95  74 101 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                     72  97  74 102 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...95