387
FXUS64 KMAF 200520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today
  to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Southeast New Mexico
  and most of West Texas.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this
  afternoon to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ this evening for the
  Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. A Wind Advisory is in effect
  from 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ this afternoon to midnight CDT /11 PM
  MDT/ this evening for the Davis and Chinati Mountains, Davis
  Mountain Foothills, Marfa Plateau, and Culberson and Eddy County
  Plains.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
  mainly across the Permian Basin, Western Low Rolling Plains,
  Stockton Plateau, and lower Trans Pecos. The main threats will
  be large hail and damaging winds, but a tornado or two cannot
  be ruled out.

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Heading into an active late afternoon and evening with continued
severe weather potential across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos region. A mid-level low is currently progressing into
western portions of New Mexico. A difluent pattern within
southwesterly flow aloft is spreading across west Texas this
afternoon, while a cold front is also draped across the southern
Permian Basin and into the Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon. Large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching system has resulted in the
development of scattered to numerous storms across the eastern and
southeastern Permian Basin and into portions of northeastern Pecos
county in the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon, several of
which have become supercells capable of producing hail of ping
pong to golfball size or greater and damaging winds in excess of
60-70 mph.

The mid-level low will continue to progress eastward across New
Mexico through this evening. A potent shortwave trough along the
base of this feature is expected to swing across west Texas later
this evening. Additional forcing will likely ignite additional
thunderstorms along an advancing/reinforcing cold front across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region this evening and recent
CAMs have been consistent in showing this scenario. MUCAPE values
up to 1500-2500 J/KG in combination with steep mid level lapse
rates, strong deep layer shear will certainly provide a favorable
environment for severe storms across these areas this evening. The
primary hazard will be large hail of ping pong to golfball size
(or larger) hail and damaging gusts in excess of 60-70 mph. 0-1 km
SRH values of 150-350 m2/s2 could result in potential for a
tornado or two through this evening. Storms could also produce
locally heavy rainfall, potentially in excess of 1-2" in a short
period of time which could result in localized flash flooding. The
severe threat should end by around 1 AM. A period of strong
westerly winds will follow frontal passage through this evening.
High winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains, where a High Wind
Warning remains in effect through this evening. A Wind Advisory
also continues through the evening from the Eddy County plains to
the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau. Dry conditions follow for
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Heading into an active late afternoon and evening with continued
severe weather potential across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos region. A mid-level low is currently progressing into
western portions of New Mexico. A difluent pattern within
southwesterly flow aloft is spreading across west Texas this
afternoon, while a cold front is also draped across the southern
Permian Basin and into the Upper Trans Pecos this afternoon. Large
scale ascent ahead of the approaching system has resulted in the
development of scattered to numerous storms across the eastern and
southeastern Permian Basin and into portions of northeastern Pecos
county in the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon, several of
which have become supercells capable of producing hail of ping
pong to golfball size or greater and damaging winds in excess of
60-70 mph.

The mid-level low will continue to progress eastward across New
Mexico through this evening. A potent shortwave trough along the
base of this feature is expected to swing across west Texas later
this evening. Additional forcing will likely ignite additional
thunderstorms along an advancing/reinforcing cold front across the
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region this evening and recent
CAMs have been consistent in showing this scenario. MUCAPE values
up to 1500-2500 J/KG in combination with steep mid level lapse
rates, strong deep layer shear will certainly provide a favorable
environment for severe storms across these areas this evening. The
primary hazard will be large hail of ping pong to golfball size
(or larger) hail and damaging gusts in excess of 60-70 mph. 0-1 km
SRH values of 150-350 m2/s2 could result in potential for a
tornado or two through this evening. Storms could also produce
locally heavy rainfall, potentially in excess of 1-2" in a short
period of time which could result in localized flash flooding. The
severe threat should end by around 1 AM. A period of strong
westerly winds will follow frontal passage through this evening.
High winds will impact the Guadalupe Mountains, where a High Wind
Warning remains in effect through this evening. A Wind Advisory
also continues through the evening from the Eddy County plains to
the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau. Dry conditions follow for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Following Sunday night which may be the coolest night in the
extended, Monday  may end up being among the warmest in the
extended, as highs in the NBM rise 5 degrees above average, with a
high probability of highs at least 80 F except for upper 70s for
higher elevations, medium probability of upper 80s to 90s Upper
Trans Pecos into Stockton Plateau, as well as low to medium
probability of highs at least 90F Big Bend and Presidio Valley, with
lower to mid 90s Big Bend and Presidio Valley shown for the NBM.
This will be courtesy subtle ridging in quasi-zonal flow as
evidenced by 500 mb geopotential heights increasing from 558 to 564
decameters Sunday to 576 to 582 decameters Monday, and 1000-500 mb
thicknesses increasing from 564 to 570 decameters Sunday to 570 to
576 decameters Monday. Lows Monday night 10 degrees above average
are expected as a result of these warmer highs taking longer to cool
off, ranging from 50s SE NM plains, northern Permian Basin, and
higher elevations, to mid 50s to lower 60s elsewhere. It will be a
similar story Tuesday for highs, but increasing rain chances.

As a matter of fact, compared to last month and earlier this month,
the extended is shaping up to feature frequent rain chances after
Monday, as a dryline is depicted to set up from SE NM plains to west
of Davis Mountains and Big Bend each day through next week.
Separation of more humid air from the Gulf to the east and drier air
from Northern MX and NM to the west means capping from the EML will
help to initiate storms if enough instability builds up and forcing
for ascent at the surface and aloft in any synoptic or mesoscale
features develop and move over the area. PoPs this far out cannot be
stated with certainty, but at least 40% to 50% PoPs are present from
Terrell County into central Permian Basin beginning Tuesday, with
50% to 60% PoPs eastern Permian Basin, 15% to 25% PoPs Davis
Mountains into SE NM plains east to Lea County down to Stockton
Plateau and Big Bend on Tuesday, with similar magnitudes but
different PoP boundaries after as the dryline oscillates west and
east over the area. Highest PoPs are currently indicated for Tuesday
evening and again on Thursday morning through afternoon, but this
far out details could change. As winds will remain light throughout
the troposphere owing to an absence of strong short wave troughs in
west/southwesterly flow regime and mainly light southerly to
southeasterly winds below high wind criteria everywhere, low severe
weather risk is indicated at this time, and any enhancement in
convective coverage largely down to traversing disturbances aloft
and mesoscale influences such as heating of elevated terrain and
storm interactions with pre-existing mesoscale boundaries and prior
convection.

With risk for severe weather limited, the main risk with any showers
and storms next week will be heavy rain. Ensembles indicate that
from Sunday through the end of next week, there is medium 30% to 50%
probability of mean rain total accumulations from 0.25" to 0.50"
northeast and east of the Davis Mountains and southwest of Pecos
River, and high probability 80% or greater probability of 0.75" to
1.00" mean rain total accumulation central Permian Basin east into
eastern Permian Basin down into Terrell County. NBM shows similar
aside from totals closer to 1: or above for central into eastern
Permian Basin, and lower amounts only a few tenths of an inch to
0.25" north and east of Davis Mountains and southwest of central
Permian Basin from Upper Trans Pecos to Lower Trans Pecos and
Terrell County. As NBM tends to consistently underestimate rain
totals a few day in advance of an event with wetting rains, this
could be an indication that if coverage of showers and storms is
more isolated, rain totals could be lower than ensembles and NBM are
showing now. Nonetheless, even minimum percentile rain total
accumulations are indicating at least a few tenths of an inch for
all locations from central Permian Basin down to Terrell County and
points east of there, and up to at least 0.50" in even most of the
lowest percentile ensembles for the Western Low Rolling Plains.
Therefore, there looks to be a good chance of wetting rains between
late Sunday and late next week for much of the Permian Basin down
into the Stockton Plateau and Terrell County. Ensembles depict a
high probability of dew point temperatures at least 55F north and
northeast of Davis Mountains Tuesday into the end of next week, and
a medium to high probability of dew point temperatures at least 60F
for this same region and time period, so next week will feel much
less dry east of western higher terrain than it has in some time,
even outside of any showers and storms. As a result of abundant
clouds and rain chances each day Tuesday into late next week
limiting direct solar heating during the day while limiting
radiational cooling overnight, with heights 576 to 582 decameters
and thicknesses below 576 decameters indicative of a mild air mass
over the area, highs near to below average ranging from mid to upper
70s to lower to mid 80s, upper 80s to 90s Upper Trans Pecos and
Stockton Plateau as well as Big Bend and Presidio Valley are
forecast each day after this Sunday, and lows 5 to 10 degrees above
average in the 50s and 60s are forecast each night after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Post-frontal
northwesterly winds will back to south after sundown Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Min RH below critical 15% down into the single digits southwest of
Pecos River as well as southwest winds for this region at least 20
miles per hour this afternoon and evening, dry to extremely dry
fuels, ERCs up to at least the 50th percentile, and poor overnight
recovery all yield RFTIs 6 to 7 and critical to extreme fire weather
southwest of Pecos River today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect
through this evening along and west and southwest of Pecos River =.
Below average temperatures Sunday decrease fire weather conditions.
Warmer than average temperatures Monday with persistent min RH below
critical for Sacramento Foothills result in RFTIs up to 4 and
elevated fire weather risk. Min RH remaining below critical and
southwest winds at least 20 miles per hour each afternoon and
evening after Monday into end of next week result in elevated to
near critical fire weather conditions for this same region
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  48  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 76  45  85  54 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                   81  52  86  61 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            77  52  88  61 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  49  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                    73  44  82  53 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                    72  42  82  51 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     74  49  82  58 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   74  50  82  59 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     77  48  87  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...44