201
FXUS64 KMAF 091051
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
551 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Warm/dry conditions through the end of the week.

- Highest rain chances early next week mainly west of the Pecos
  River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Mid and upper ridging build back over the region today helping to
end most rain chance outside of the higher terrain. There expect a
shower or isolated storm due to continue upslope flow.
Temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 80s for most
locations; 70s in the higher terrain. Temperatures cool into the
50s/60s overnight before yet another hot day. Highs will top out
in the 80s with even a few 90s along the Rio Grande and Colorado
River Valley. Rain chances drop to nil as subsidence increases
over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Slightly warmer weather is on the way this weekend as upper-level
ridging becomes prevalent over southeast New Mexico and West Texas.
Rain chances (10-40%) increase over our westernmost areas Sunday as
an upper-level disturbance sends shortwave impulses/vorticity
maximums through southwesterly flow aloft. Increasing moisture due
to the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected early next
week, raising dew point temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s
areawide. Currently, the best chances (10-30%) of rain appear to be
across the northwest Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and
portions of far west Texas where the greatest forcing for ascent and
instability are expected to overlap with the moisture. However,
great uncertainty in rainfall coverage and totals remain at this
time. Ensemble guidance and cluster analysis indicate the return of
ridging by the middle of next week, potentially signifying a
decrease in rain chances. However, details in next week`s forecast
are likely to change as Monday approaches. Stay tuned!

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR prevails through the period with light southeast winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               87  62  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 84  61  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   87  65  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            86  63  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  59  75  58 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                    82  59  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    77  54  79  52 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     86  63  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   85  63  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     85  62  86  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29